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Galatasaray vs Aston Villa: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Tuesday 24 November, 18:45

Galatasaray23rd, 3 pts
–Matchday 5
Aston Villa2nd, 9 pts
30%Galatasaray win
26%Draw
44%Aston Villa win

The model gives Galatasaray a 30% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Aston Villa 44%. Galatasaray's chance of going through is 55% now: a win would take it to 80%, a defeat to 39%. Aston Villa's top-8 chance is 62% now: a win would take it to 81%, a defeat to 41%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeGalatasaray: top 8Galatasaray: throughAston Villa: top 8Aston Villa: through
Now1%55%62%100%
Galatasaray win3%80%41%>99%
Draw<1%53%55%100%
Aston Villa win<1%39%81%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.1 – 1.5Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
23%Galatasaray clean sheet
32%Aston Villa clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
1–08%
0–28%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Galatasaray

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -3

  1. MD1LSporting CP A1–3
  2. MD2LBarcelona H1–4
  3. MD3WLille A4–2
  4. MD4Stuttgart H3 November
  5. MD5Aston Villa H this match24 November
  6. MD6AEK Athens A8 December
  7. MD7Feyenoord H19 January
  8. MD8Paris Saint-Germain A27 January

Aston Villa

9 points from 3 matches, goal difference +9

  1. MD1WClub Brugge A3–2
  2. MD2WFenerbahçe H6–0
  3. MD3WViking H3–1
  4. MD4Barcelona A3 November
  5. MD5Galatasaray A this match24 November
  6. MD6Paris Saint-Germain H8 December
  7. MD7Borussia Dortmund H19 January
  8. MD8Slavia Praha A27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Galatasaray vs Aston Villa?

The model gives Galatasaray a 30% chance of winning and Aston Villa 44%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 0–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Galatasaray vs Aston Villa?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.1 for Galatasaray and 1.5 for Aston Villa, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Galatasaray?

Galatasaray's qualification chance is 55% right now. A win would make it 80%, a draw 53% and a defeat 39%.

What does this match mean for Aston Villa?

Aston Villa's top-8 chance is 62% right now. A win would make it 81%, a draw 55% and a defeat 41%.

When is Galatasaray vs Aston Villa played?

Tuesday 24 November, 18:45 (Champions League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →