Galatasaray vs Aston Villa: what's at stake in the Champions League?
← Champions League: full table and chances
Matchday 5 · Tuesday 24 November, 18:45
Galatasaray29th, 0 pts
–Matchday 5
Aston Villa11th, 3 pts
33%Galatasaray win
26%Draw
41%Aston Villa win
The model gives Galatasaray a 33% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Aston Villa 41%. Galatasaray's chance of going through is 44% now: a win would take it to 66%, a defeat to 29%. Aston Villa's chance of going through is 95% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 90%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Galatasaray: top 8 | Galatasaray: through | Aston Villa: top 8 | Aston Villa: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 2% | 44% | 34% | 95% |
| Galatasaray win | 4% | 66% | 18% | 90% |
| Draw | 1% | 41% | 29% | 95% |
| Aston Villa win | <1% | 29% | 50% | 99% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
2–18%
0–08%
Other matchday 5 fixtures
- Bodø/Glimt – LASK
- Arsenal – Borussia Dortmund
- Como – AEK Athens
- Feyenoord – Porto
- Manchester City – Napoli
- Leipzig – Lens
- Real Madrid – PSV Eindhoven
- Slovan Bratislava – Real Betis
- Sabah – Barcelona
- Slavia Praha – Villarreal
- Atlético de Madrid – Viking
- Club Brugge – Liverpool
- Inter – Stuttgart
- Shakhtar Donetsk – Fenerbahçe
- Lille – Bayern München
- Paris Saint-Germain – Roma
- Sporting CP – Manchester United