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Manchester United vs Bayern München: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Wednesday 20 January, 21:00

Manchester United21st, 3 pts
–Matchday 7
Bayern München14th, 5 pts
20%Manchester United win
23%Draw
57%Bayern München win

The model gives Manchester United a 20% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Bayern München 57%. Manchester United's chance of going through is 60% now: a win would take it to 85%, a defeat to 50%. Bayern München's top-8 chance is 64% now: a win would take it to 79%, a defeat to 33%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeManchester United: top 8Manchester United: throughBayern München: top 8Bayern München: through
Now2%60%64%>99%
Manchester United win8%85%33%99%
Draw2%64%53%>99%
Bayern München win<1%50%79%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

0.9 – 1.8Expected goals
51%Both teams score
51%3 or more goals
17%Manchester United clean sheet
39%Bayern München clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
1–111%
0–210%
1–210%
0–07%
0–36%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Manchester United

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -1

  1. MD1WSabah H4–0
  2. MD2LAtlético de Madrid A0–2
  3. MD3LComo A1–4
  4. MD4Roma H3 November
  5. MD5Sporting CP A25 November
  6. MD6Leipzig H8 December
  7. MD7Bayern München H this match20 January
  8. MD8Villarreal A27 January

Bayern München

5 points from 3 matches, goal difference +5

  1. MD1WBodø/Glimt H5–0
  2. MD2DViking A3–3
  3. MD3DArsenal H2–2
  4. MD4Atlético de Madrid A3 November
  5. MD5Lille A25 November
  6. MD6Slavia Praha H8 December
  7. MD7Manchester United A this match20 January
  8. MD8Real Betis H27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Man United vs Bayern Munich?

The model gives Manchester United a 20% chance of winning and Bayern München 57%, with a draw at 23%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 0–1 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Man United vs Bayern Munich?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 0.9 for Manchester United and 1.8 for Bayern München, and the match has 3 or more goals in 51% of cases.

What does this match mean for Manchester United?

Manchester United's qualification chance is 60% right now. A win would make it 85%, a draw 64% and a defeat 50%.

What does this match mean for Bayern München?

Bayern München's top-8 chance is 64% right now. A win would make it 79%, a draw 53% and a defeat 33%.

When is Manchester United vs Bayern München played?

Wednesday 20 January, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 7).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 7 fixtures

Full matchday 7: what every team needs →