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Manchester City vs Sporting CP: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Wednesday 27 January, 21:00

Manchester City10th, 6 pts
–Matchday 8
Sporting CP12th, 6 pts
61%Manchester City win
22%Draw
17%Sporting CP win

The model gives Manchester City a 61% chance of winning, a draw 22% and Sporting CP 17%. Manchester City's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 95%. Sporting CP's chance of going through is 90% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 86%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeManchester City: top 8Manchester City: throughSporting CP: top 8Sporting CP: through
Now45%99%13%90%
Manchester City win58%>99%7%86%
Draw31%98%14%94%
Sporting CP win18%95%35%99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.9 – 0.9Expected goals
50%Both teams score
52%3 or more goals
41%Manchester City clean sheet
15%Sporting CP clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
0–06%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Manchester City

6 points from 3 matches, goal difference +4

  1. MD1WPorto A2–0
  2. MD2LParis Saint-Germain H2–4
  3. MD3WAEK Athens H5–1
  4. MD4Leipzig A4 November
  5. MD5Napoli H24 November
  6. MD6Barcelona A8 December
  7. MD7Lens A20 January
  8. MD8Sporting CP H this match27 January

Sporting CP

6 points from 3 matches, goal difference +3

  1. MD1WGalatasaray H3–1
  2. MD2WLens A2–0
  3. MD3LLASK H2–3
  4. MD4Shakhtar Donetsk A3 November
  5. MD5Manchester United H25 November
  6. MD6Roma A8 December
  7. MD7Barcelona H20 January
  8. MD8Manchester City A this match27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Man City vs Sporting Lisbon?

The model gives Manchester City a 61% chance of winning and Sporting CP 17%, with a draw at 22%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 2–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Man City vs Sporting Lisbon?

The model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. Expected goals are 1.9 for Manchester City and 0.9 for Sporting CP, and the match has 3 or more goals in 52% of cases.

What does this match mean for Manchester City?

Manchester City's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 98% and a defeat 95%.

What does this match mean for Sporting CP?

Sporting CP's qualification chance is 90% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 94% and a defeat 86%.

When is Manchester City vs Sporting CP played?

Wednesday 27 January, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 8).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 8 fixtures

Full matchday 8: what every team needs →