Knockout Math
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Manchester City vs Sporting CP: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Wednesday 27 January, 21:00

Manchester City8th, 3 pts
–Matchday 8
Sporting CP6th, 3 pts
63%Manchester City win
21%Draw
16%Sporting CP win

The model gives Manchester City a 63% chance of winning, a draw 21% and Sporting CP 16%. Manchester City's chance of going through is 98% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 94%. Sporting CP's chance of going through is 89% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 86%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Manchester City: top 8Manchester City: throughSporting CP: top 8Sporting CP: through
Now54%98%21%89%
Manchester City win65%>99%14%86%
Draw41%97%22%92%
Sporting CP win29%94%44%98%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%

Other matchday 8 fixtures