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Inter vs Stuttgart: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Wednesday 25 November, 21:00

Inter20th, 3 pts
–Matchday 5
Stuttgart6th, 7 pts
58%Inter win
23%Draw
19%Stuttgart win

The model gives Inter a 58% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Stuttgart 19%. Inter's chance of going through is 89% now: a win would take it to 96%, a defeat to 73%. Stuttgart's chance of going through is 97% now: a win would take it to 100%, a defeat to 96%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeInter: top 8Inter: throughStuttgart: top 8Stuttgart: through
Now11%89%29%97%
Inter win17%96%19%96%
Draw4%83%32%98%
Stuttgart win1%73%58%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.8 – 0.9Expected goals
50%Both teams score
51%3 or more goals
40%Inter clean sheet
16%Stuttgart clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
3–06%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Inter

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LReal Madrid A1–2
  2. MD2LClub Brugge H3–4
  3. MD3WShakhtar Donetsk H1–0
  4. MD4Feyenoord A3 November
  5. MD5Stuttgart H this match25 November
  6. MD6Borussia Dortmund A9 December
  7. MD7Liverpool H19 January
  8. MD8Slovan Bratislava A27 January

Stuttgart

7 points from 3 matches, goal difference +5

  1. MD1WViking H3–1
  2. MD2WSlovan Bratislava A3–0
  3. MD3DAtlético de Madrid H1–1
  4. MD4Galatasaray A3 November
  5. MD5Inter A this match25 November
  6. MD6Lille H9 December
  7. MD7Club Brugge H19 January
  8. MD8PSV Eindhoven A27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Inter Milan vs Stuttgart?

The model gives Inter a 58% chance of winning and Stuttgart 19%, with a draw at 23%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Inter Milan vs Stuttgart?

The model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. Expected goals are 1.8 for Inter and 0.9 for Stuttgart, and the match has 3 or more goals in 51% of cases.

What does this match mean for Inter?

Inter's qualification chance is 89% right now. A win would make it 96%, a draw 83% and a defeat 73%.

What does this match mean for Stuttgart?

Stuttgart's qualification chance is 97% right now. A win would make it 100%, a draw 98% and a defeat 96%.

When is Inter vs Stuttgart played?

Wednesday 25 November, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →