Knockout Math
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Roma vs Sporting CP: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Tuesday 8 December, 21:00

Roma17th, 1 pts
–Matchday 6
Sporting CP6th, 3 pts
43%Roma win
26%Draw
31%Sporting CP win

The model gives Roma a 43% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Sporting CP 31%. Roma's chance of going through is 73% now: a win would take it to 88%, a defeat to 57%. Sporting CP's chance of going through is 89% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 82%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Roma: top 8Roma: throughSporting CP: top 8Sporting CP: through
Now8%73%21%89%
Roma win14%88%11%82%
Draw4%69%18%91%
Sporting CP win2%57%37%98%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–07%

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