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Roma vs Sporting CP: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Tuesday 8 December, 21:00

Roma15th, 4 pts
–Matchday 6
Sporting CP12th, 6 pts
41%Roma win
26%Draw
32%Sporting CP win

The model gives Roma a 41% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Sporting CP 32%. Roma's chance of going through is 77% now: a win would take it to 93%, a defeat to 60%. Sporting CP's chance of going through is 90% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 82%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeRoma: top 8Roma: throughSporting CP: top 8Sporting CP: through
Now5%77%13%90%
Roma win10%93%5%82%
Draw1%75%10%91%
Sporting CP win1%60%26%99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.4 – 1.2Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
30%Roma clean sheet
25%Sporting CP clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Roma

4 points from 3 matches, goal difference +3

  1. MD1DFenerbahçe A1–1
  2. MD2LReal Madrid H3–4
  3. MD3WSlovan Bratislava H4–0
  4. MD4Manchester United A3 November
  5. MD5Paris Saint-Germain A25 November
  6. MD6Sporting CP H this match8 December
  7. MD7AEK Athens A19 January
  8. MD8Lille H27 January

Sporting CP

6 points from 3 matches, goal difference +3

  1. MD1WGalatasaray H3–1
  2. MD2WLens A2–0
  3. MD3LLASK H2–3
  4. MD4Shakhtar Donetsk A3 November
  5. MD5Manchester United H25 November
  6. MD6Roma A this match8 December
  7. MD7Barcelona H20 January
  8. MD8Manchester City A27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Roma vs Sporting Lisbon?

The model gives Roma a 41% chance of winning and Sporting CP 32%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 1–0 (10%).

Will both teams score in Roma vs Sporting Lisbon?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.4 for Roma and 1.2 for Sporting CP, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Roma?

Roma's qualification chance is 77% right now. A win would make it 93%, a draw 75% and a defeat 60%.

What does this match mean for Sporting CP?

Sporting CP's qualification chance is 90% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 91% and a defeat 82%.

When is Roma vs Sporting CP played?

Tuesday 8 December, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →