Knockout Math
Live
EN

Manchester City vs Napoli: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Tuesday 24 November, 21:00

Manchester City10th, 6 pts
–Matchday 5
Napoli22nd, 3 pts
58%Manchester City win
23%Draw
19%Napoli win

The model gives Manchester City a 58% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Napoli 19%. Manchester City's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 96%. Napoli's chance of going through is 89% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 85%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeManchester City: top 8Manchester City: throughNapoli: top 8Napoli: through
Now45%99%9%89%
Manchester City win59%>99%2%85%
Draw32%98%9%92%
Napoli win17%96%29%99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.8 – 0.9Expected goals
50%Both teams score
51%3 or more goals
40%Manchester City clean sheet
17%Napoli clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
3–06%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Manchester City

6 points from 3 matches, goal difference +4

  1. MD1WPorto A2–0
  2. MD2LParis Saint-Germain H2–4
  3. MD3WAEK Athens H5–1
  4. MD4Leipzig A4 November
  5. MD5Napoli H this match24 November
  6. MD6Barcelona A8 December
  7. MD7Lens A20 January
  8. MD8Sporting CP H27 January

Napoli

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -2

  1. MD1LArsenal H0–1
  2. MD2LVillarreal A1–3
  3. MD3WBodø/Glimt H4–3
  4. MD4Porto A4 November
  5. MD5Manchester City A this match24 November
  6. MD6Club Brugge H8 December
  7. MD7Sabah A20 January
  8. MD8Viking H27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Man City vs Napoli?

The model gives Manchester City a 58% chance of winning and Napoli 19%, with a draw at 23%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Man City vs Napoli?

The model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. Expected goals are 1.8 for Manchester City and 0.9 for Napoli, and the match has 3 or more goals in 51% of cases.

What does this match mean for Manchester City?

Manchester City's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 98% and a defeat 96%.

What does this match mean for Napoli?

Napoli's qualification chance is 89% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 92% and a defeat 85%.

When is Manchester City vs Napoli played?

Tuesday 24 November, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →