Manchester City vs Napoli: what's at stake in the Champions League?
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Matchday 5 · Tuesday 24 November, 21:00
Manchester City8th, 3 pts
–Matchday 5
Napoli28th, 0 pts
55%Manchester City win
24%Draw
21%Napoli win
The model gives Manchester City a 55% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Napoli 21%. Manchester City's chance of going through is 98% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 95%. Napoli's chance of going through is 90% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 86%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Manchester City: top 8 | Manchester City: through | Napoli: top 8 | Napoli: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 54% | 98% | 21% | 90% |
| Manchester City win | 67% | >99% | 12% | 86% |
| Draw | 44% | 97% | 22% | 92% |
| Napoli win | 30% | 95% | 45% | 98% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%
Other matchday 5 fixtures
- Bodø/Glimt – LASK
- Galatasaray – Aston Villa
- Arsenal – Borussia Dortmund
- Como – AEK Athens
- Feyenoord – Porto
- Leipzig – Lens
- Real Madrid – PSV Eindhoven
- Slovan Bratislava – Real Betis
- Sabah – Barcelona
- Slavia Praha – Villarreal
- Atlético de Madrid – Viking
- Club Brugge – Liverpool
- Inter – Stuttgart
- Shakhtar Donetsk – Fenerbahçe
- Lille – Bayern München
- Paris Saint-Germain – Roma
- Sporting CP – Manchester United