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Club Brugge vs Liverpool: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Wednesday 25 November, 21:00

Club Brugge11th, 6 pts
–Matchday 5
Liverpool3rd, 9 pts
20%Club Brugge win
23%Draw
57%Liverpool win

The model gives Club Brugge a 20% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Liverpool 57%. Club Brugge's chance of going through is 87% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 81%. Liverpool's top-8 chance is 92% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 78%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeClub Brugge: top 8Club Brugge: throughLiverpool: top 8Liverpool: through
Now10%87%92%100%
Club Brugge win27%99%78%100%
Draw9%90%90%100%
Liverpool win4%81%97%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

0.9 – 1.8Expected goals
51%Both teams score
51%3 or more goals
17%Club Brugge clean sheet
39%Liverpool clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
1–111%
0–210%
1–210%
0–07%
1–06%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Club Brugge

6 points from 3 matches, goal difference +3

  1. MD1LAston Villa H2–3
  2. MD2WInter A4–3
  3. MD3WLens H3–0
  4. MD4PSV Eindhoven A4 November
  5. MD5Liverpool H this match25 November
  6. MD6Napoli A8 December
  7. MD7Stuttgart A19 January
  8. MD8Bodø/Glimt H27 January

Liverpool

9 points from 3 matches, goal difference +5

  1. MD1WAtlético de Madrid H2–1
  2. MD2WLASK A6–3
  3. MD3WVillarreal H4–3
  4. MD4Fenerbahçe A4 November
  5. MD5Club Brugge A this match25 November
  6. MD6Porto H9 December
  7. MD7Inter A19 January
  8. MD8Lens H27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Club Brugge vs Liverpool?

The model gives Club Brugge a 20% chance of winning and Liverpool 57%, with a draw at 23%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 0–1 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Club Brugge vs Liverpool?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 0.9 for Club Brugge and 1.8 for Liverpool, and the match has 3 or more goals in 51% of cases.

What does this match mean for Club Brugge?

Club Brugge's qualification chance is 87% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 90% and a defeat 81%.

What does this match mean for Liverpool?

Liverpool's top-8 chance is 92% right now. A win would make it 97%, a draw 90% and a defeat 78%.

When is Club Brugge vs Liverpool played?

Wednesday 25 November, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →