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Sabah vs Barcelona: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Wednesday 25 November, 18:45

Sabah25th, 3 pts
–Matchday 5
Barcelona8th, 6 pts
4%Sabah win
10%Draw
86%Barcelona win

The model gives Sabah a 4% chance of winning, a draw 10% and Barcelona 86%. Sabah's chance of going through is 4% now: a win would take it to 22%, a defeat to 2%. Barcelona's top-8 chance is 71% now: a win would take it to 75%, a defeat to 36%. The most likely score is 0–3 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeSabah: top 8Sabah: throughBarcelona: top 8Barcelona: through
Now<1%4%71%>99%
Sabah win<1%22%36%98%
Draw0%6%49%99%
Barcelona win0%2%75%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

0.6 – 3.0Expected goals
40%Both teams score
69%3 or more goals
5%Sabah clean sheet
58%Barcelona clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–313%
0–213%
0–410%
0–18%
1–37%
1–27%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Sabah

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -3

  1. MD1LManchester United A0–4
  2. MD2WSlavia Praha H2–0
  3. MD3LBorussia Dortmund H1–2
  4. MD4Viking A4 November
  5. MD5Barcelona H this match25 November
  6. MD6Villarreal A8 December
  7. MD7Napoli H20 January
  8. MD8Arsenal A27 January

Barcelona

6 points from 3 matches, goal difference +5

  1. MD1WFeyenoord H5–1
  2. MD2WGalatasaray A4–1
  3. MD3LParis Saint-Germain A2–4
  4. MD4Aston Villa H3 November
  5. MD5Sabah A this match25 November
  6. MD6Manchester City H8 December
  7. MD7Sporting CP A20 January
  8. MD8Como H27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Sabah vs Barcelona?

The model gives Sabah a 4% chance of winning and Barcelona 86%, with a draw at 10%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 0–3 (13%), followed by 0–2 (13%).

Will both teams score in Sabah vs Barcelona?

The model gives both teams scoring a 40% chance. Expected goals are 0.6 for Sabah and 3.0 for Barcelona, and the match has 3 or more goals in 69% of cases.

What does this match mean for Sabah?

Sabah's qualification chance is 4% right now. A win would make it 22%, a draw 6% and a defeat 2%.

What does this match mean for Barcelona?

Barcelona's top-8 chance is 71% right now. A win would make it 75%, a draw 49% and a defeat 36%.

When is Sabah vs Barcelona played?

Wednesday 25 November, 18:45 (Champions League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →