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Slovan Bratislava vs Real Betis: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Tuesday 24 November, 21:00

Slovan Bratislava36th, 0 pts
–Matchday 5
Real Betis5th, 9 pts
17%Slovan Bratislava win
22%Draw
61%Real Betis win

The model gives Slovan Bratislava a 17% chance of winning, a draw 22% and Real Betis 61%. Slovan Bratislava's chance of going through is 3% now: a win would take it to 10%, a defeat to 1%. Real Betis's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to 100%, a defeat to 97%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeSlovan Bratislava: top 8Slovan Bratislava: throughReal Betis: top 8Real Betis: through
Now0%3%36%99%
Slovan Bratislava win0%10%13%97%
Draw0%2%22%>99%
Real Betis win0%1%47%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

0.9 – 1.9Expected goals
50%Both teams score
52%3 or more goals
15%Slovan Bratislava clean sheet
41%Real Betis clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
0–211%
1–110%
1–210%
0–37%
0–06%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Slovan Bratislava

0 points from 3 matches, goal difference -12

  1. MD1LParis Saint-Germain A1–6
  2. MD2LStuttgart H0–3
  3. MD3LRoma A0–4
  4. MD4LASK A3 November
  5. MD5Real Betis H this match24 November
  6. MD6Shakhtar Donetsk H9 December
  7. MD7Lille A19 January
  8. MD8Inter H27 January

Real Betis

9 points from 3 matches, goal difference +3

  1. MD1WLille A3–2
  2. MD2WPorto H3–2
  3. MD3WFeyenoord H1–0
  4. MD4Borussia Dortmund A4 November
  5. MD5Slovan Bratislava A this match24 November
  6. MD6Como H9 December
  7. MD7Arsenal H20 January
  8. MD8Bayern München A27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Slovan Bratislava vs Real Betis?

The model gives Slovan Bratislava a 17% chance of winning and Real Betis 61%, with a draw at 22%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 0–1 (12%), followed by 0–2 (11%).

Will both teams score in Slovan Bratislava vs Real Betis?

The model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. Expected goals are 0.9 for Slovan Bratislava and 1.9 for Real Betis, and the match has 3 or more goals in 52% of cases.

What does this match mean for Slovan Bratislava?

Slovan Bratislava's qualification chance is 3% right now. A win would make it 10%, a draw 2% and a defeat 1%.

What does this match mean for Real Betis?

Real Betis's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it 100%, a draw >99% and a defeat 97%.

When is Slovan Bratislava vs Real Betis played?

Tuesday 24 November, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →