Knockout Math
Live
EN

Manchester United vs Leipzig: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Tuesday 8 December, 21:00

Manchester United21st, 3 pts
–Matchday 6
Leipzig30th, 3 pts
47%Manchester United win
26%Draw
27%Leipzig win

The model gives Manchester United a 47% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Leipzig 27%. Manchester United's chance of going through is 60% now: a win would take it to 79%, a defeat to 36%. Leipzig's chance of going through is 64% now: a win would take it to 87%, a defeat to 50%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeManchester United: top 8Manchester United: throughLeipzig: top 8Leipzig: through
Now2%60%3%64%
Manchester United win4%79%<1%50%
Draw1%51%1%66%
Leipzig win<1%36%7%87%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.5 – 1.1Expected goals
52%Both teams score
49%3 or more goals
33%Manchester United clean sheet
22%Leipzig clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–08%
0–18%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Manchester United

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -1

  1. MD1WSabah H4–0
  2. MD2LAtlético de Madrid A0–2
  3. MD3LComo A1–4
  4. MD4Roma H3 November
  5. MD5Sporting CP A25 November
  6. MD6Leipzig H this match8 December
  7. MD7Bayern München H20 January
  8. MD8Villarreal A27 January

Leipzig

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -5

  1. MD1LComo A1–4
  2. MD2WPSV Eindhoven H1–0
  3. MD3LReal Madrid A1–4
  4. MD4Manchester City H4 November
  5. MD5Lens H24 November
  6. MD6Manchester United A this match8 December
  7. MD7Shakhtar Donetsk H20 January
  8. MD8Feyenoord A27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Man United vs RB Leipzig?

The model gives Manchester United a 47% chance of winning and Leipzig 27%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Man United vs RB Leipzig?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.5 for Manchester United and 1.1 for Leipzig, and the match has 3 or more goals in 49% of cases.

What does this match mean for Manchester United?

Manchester United's qualification chance is 60% right now. A win would make it 79%, a draw 51% and a defeat 36%.

What does this match mean for Leipzig?

Leipzig's qualification chance is 64% right now. A win would make it 87%, a draw 66% and a defeat 50%.

When is Manchester United vs Leipzig played?

Tuesday 8 December, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →