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Slavia Praha vs Villarreal: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Wednesday 25 November, 18:45

Slavia Praha32nd, 1 pt
–Matchday 5
Villarreal19th, 3 pts
26%Slavia Praha win
25%Draw
49%Villarreal win

The model gives Slavia Praha a 26% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Villarreal 49%. Slavia Praha's chance of going through is 4% now: a win would take it to 11%, a defeat to 1%. Villarreal's chance of going through is 82% now: a win would take it to 94%, a defeat to 63%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeSlavia Praha: top 8Slavia Praha: throughVillarreal: top 8Villarreal: through
Now<1%4%5%82%
Slavia Praha win<1%11%<1%63%
Draw0%2%2%76%
Villarreal win0%1%10%94%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.1 – 1.6Expected goals
52%Both teams score
49%3 or more goals
21%Slavia Praha clean sheet
35%Villarreal clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–29%
1–08%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Slavia Praha

1 point from 3 matches, goal difference -3

  1. MD1LLens H2–3
  2. MD2LSabah A0–2
  3. MD3DFenerbahçe A2–2
  4. MD4Arsenal H4 November
  5. MD5Villarreal H this match25 November
  6. MD6Bayern München A8 December
  7. MD7Porto A19 January
  8. MD8Aston Villa H27 January

Villarreal

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference 0

  1. MD1LBorussia Dortmund A2–3
  2. MD2WNapoli H3–1
  3. MD3LLiverpool A3–4
  4. MD4Paris Saint-Germain H3 November
  5. MD5Slavia Praha A this match25 November
  6. MD6Sabah H8 December
  7. MD7Fenerbahçe A20 January
  8. MD8Manchester United H27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Slavia Prague vs Villarreal?

The model gives Slavia Praha a 26% chance of winning and Villarreal 49%, with a draw at 25%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 0–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Slavia Prague vs Villarreal?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.1 for Slavia Praha and 1.6 for Villarreal, and the match has 3 or more goals in 49% of cases.

What does this match mean for Slavia Praha?

Slavia Praha's qualification chance is 4% right now. A win would make it 11%, a draw 2% and a defeat 1%.

What does this match mean for Villarreal?

Villarreal's qualification chance is 82% right now. A win would make it 94%, a draw 76% and a defeat 63%.

When is Slavia Praha vs Villarreal played?

Wednesday 25 November, 18:45 (Champions League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →