Atlético de Madrid vs Manchester United: what's at stake in the Champions League?
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Matchday 2 · Tuesday 13 October, 21:00
Atlético de Madrid25th, 0 pts
–Matchday 2
Manchester United4th, 3 pts
53%Atlético de Madrid win
24%Draw
23%Manchester United win
The model gives Atlético de Madrid a 53% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Manchester United 23%. Atlético de Madrid's chance of going through is 89% now: a win would take it to 96%, a defeat to 78%. Manchester United's chance of going through is 86% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 81%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Atlético de Madrid: top 8 | Atlético de Madrid: through | Manchester United: top 8 | Manchester United: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 22% | 89% | 19% | 86% |
| Atlético de Madrid win | 33% | 96% | 11% | 81% |
| Draw | 14% | 86% | 19% | 89% |
| Manchester United win | 7% | 78% | 38% | 97% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–112%
1–012%
2–110%
2–010%
0–17%
0–07%
Other matchday 2 fixtures
- Lens – Sporting CP
- Sabah – Slavia Praha
- Arsenal – Lille
- Inter – Club Brugge
- Galatasaray – Barcelona
- Leipzig – PSV Eindhoven
- Viking – Bayern München
- Villarreal – Napoli
- Feyenoord – Como
- LASK – Liverpool
- Roma – Real Madrid
- Aston Villa – Fenerbahçe
- Shakhtar Donetsk – AEK Athens
- Bodø/Glimt – Borussia Dortmund
- Manchester City – Paris Saint-Germain
- Real Betis – Porto
- Slovan Bratislava – Stuttgart