Knockout Math
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Real Madrid vs PSV Eindhoven: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Tuesday 24 November, 21:00

Real Madrid13th, 3 pts
–Matchday 5
PSV Eindhoven20th, 1 pts
69%Real Madrid win
19%Draw
12%PSV Eindhoven win

The model gives Real Madrid a 69% chance of winning, a draw 19% and PSV Eindhoven 12%. Real Madrid's top-8 chance is 81% now: a win would take it to 88%, a defeat to 57%. PSV Eindhoven's chance of going through is 66% now: a win would take it to 88%, a defeat to 60%. The most likely score is 2–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Real Madrid: top 8Real Madrid: throughPSV Eindhoven: top 8PSV Eindhoven: through
Now81%>99%6%66%
Real Madrid win88%100%4%60%
Draw71%99%7%74%
PSV Eindhoven win57%99%19%88%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
3–09%
1–19%
3–17%

Other matchday 5 fixtures