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Real Madrid vs PSV Eindhoven: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Tuesday 24 November, 21:00

Real Madrid4th, 9 pts
–Matchday 5
PSV Eindhoven18th, 4 pts
71%Real Madrid win
18%Draw
11%PSV Eindhoven win

The model gives Real Madrid a 71% chance of winning, a draw 18% and PSV Eindhoven 11%. Real Madrid's top-8 chance is 96% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 86%. PSV Eindhoven's chance of going through is 77% now: a win would take it to 96%, a defeat to 72%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeReal Madrid: top 8Real Madrid: throughPSV Eindhoven: top 8PSV Eindhoven: through
Now96%100%5%77%
Real Madrid win99%100%2%72%
Draw93%100%5%85%
PSV Eindhoven win86%100%20%96%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

2.2 – 0.7Expected goals
47%Both teams score
57%3 or more goals
47%Real Madrid clean sheet
11%PSV Eindhoven clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–013%
1–011%
2–19%
3–09%
1–18%
3–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Real Madrid

9 points from 3 matches, goal difference +5

  1. MD1WInter H2–1
  2. MD2WRoma A4–3
  3. MD3WLeipzig H4–1
  4. MD4AEK Athens A4 November
  5. MD5PSV Eindhoven H this match24 November
  6. MD6Arsenal A9 December
  7. MD7LASK H19 January
  8. MD8Shakhtar Donetsk A27 January

PSV Eindhoven

4 points from 3 matches, goal difference 0

  1. MD1DShakhtar Donetsk H1–1
  2. MD2LLeipzig A0–1
  3. MD3WPorto A1–0
  4. MD4Club Brugge H4 November
  5. MD5Real Madrid A this match24 November
  6. MD6Atlético de Madrid H9 December
  7. MD7Viking A20 January
  8. MD8Stuttgart H27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Real Madrid vs PSV?

The model gives Real Madrid a 71% chance of winning and PSV Eindhoven 11%, with a draw at 18%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 2–0 (13%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs PSV?

The model gives both teams scoring a 47% chance. Expected goals are 2.2 for Real Madrid and 0.7 for PSV Eindhoven, and the match has 3 or more goals in 57% of cases.

What does this match mean for Real Madrid?

Real Madrid's top-8 chance is 96% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 93% and a defeat 86%.

What does this match mean for PSV Eindhoven?

PSV Eindhoven's qualification chance is 77% right now. A win would make it 96%, a draw 85% and a defeat 72%.

When is Real Madrid vs PSV Eindhoven played?

Tuesday 24 November, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →