Real Madrid vs PSV Eindhoven: what's at stake in the Champions League?
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Matchday 5 · Tuesday 24 November, 21:00
Real Madrid13th, 3 pts
–Matchday 5
PSV Eindhoven20th, 1 pts
69%Real Madrid win
19%Draw
12%PSV Eindhoven win
The model gives Real Madrid a 69% chance of winning, a draw 19% and PSV Eindhoven 12%. Real Madrid's top-8 chance is 81% now: a win would take it to 88%, a defeat to 57%. PSV Eindhoven's chance of going through is 66% now: a win would take it to 88%, a defeat to 60%. The most likely score is 2–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Real Madrid: top 8 | Real Madrid: through | PSV Eindhoven: top 8 | PSV Eindhoven: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 81% | >99% | 6% | 66% |
| Real Madrid win | 88% | 100% | 4% | 60% |
| Draw | 71% | 99% | 7% | 74% |
| PSV Eindhoven win | 57% | 99% | 19% | 88% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
3–09%
1–19%
3–17%
Other matchday 5 fixtures
- Bodø/Glimt – LASK
- Galatasaray – Aston Villa
- Arsenal – Borussia Dortmund
- Como – AEK Athens
- Feyenoord – Porto
- Manchester City – Napoli
- Leipzig – Lens
- Slovan Bratislava – Real Betis
- Sabah – Barcelona
- Slavia Praha – Villarreal
- Atlético de Madrid – Viking
- Club Brugge – Liverpool
- Inter – Stuttgart
- Shakhtar Donetsk – Fenerbahçe
- Lille – Bayern München
- Paris Saint-Germain – Roma
- Sporting CP – Manchester United