Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund: what's at stake in the Champions League?
← Champions League: full table and chances
Matchday 5 · Tuesday 24 November, 21:00
Arsenal15th, 3 pts
–Matchday 5
Borussia Dortmund12th, 3 pts
64%Arsenal win
21%Draw
15%Borussia Dortmund win
The model gives Arsenal a 64% chance of winning, a draw 21% and Borussia Dortmund 15%. Arsenal's top-8 chance is 77% now: a win would take it to 86%, a defeat to 52%. Borussia Dortmund's chance of going through is 95% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 94%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Arsenal: top 8 | Arsenal: through | Borussia Dortmund: top 8 | Borussia Dortmund: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 77% | >99% | 34% | 95% |
| Arsenal win | 86% | 100% | 26% | 94% |
| Draw | 66% | >99% | 38% | 97% |
| Borussia Dortmund win | 52% | 99% | 63% | 99% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–012%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
3–16%
Other matchday 5 fixtures
- Bodø/Glimt – LASK
- Galatasaray – Aston Villa
- Como – AEK Athens
- Feyenoord – Porto
- Manchester City – Napoli
- Leipzig – Lens
- Real Madrid – PSV Eindhoven
- Slovan Bratislava – Real Betis
- Sabah – Barcelona
- Slavia Praha – Villarreal
- Atlético de Madrid – Viking
- Club Brugge – Liverpool
- Inter – Stuttgart
- Shakhtar Donetsk – Fenerbahçe
- Lille – Bayern München
- Paris Saint-Germain – Roma
- Sporting CP – Manchester United