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Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Tuesday 24 November, 21:00

Arsenal7th, 7 pts
–Matchday 5
Borussia Dortmund13th, 6 pts
66%Arsenal win
20%Draw
14%Borussia Dortmund win

The model gives Arsenal a 66% chance of winning, a draw 20% and Borussia Dortmund 14%. Arsenal's top-8 chance is 86% now: a win would take it to 95%, a defeat to 63%. Borussia Dortmund's chance of going through is 95% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 93%. The most likely score is 2–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeArsenal: top 8Arsenal: throughBorussia Dortmund: top 8Borussia Dortmund: through
Now86%100%18%95%
Arsenal win95%100%10%93%
Draw77%100%21%97%
Borussia Dortmund win63%>99%46%>99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

2.0 – 0.8Expected goals
49%Both teams score
54%3 or more goals
44%Arsenal clean sheet
13%Borussia Dortmund clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–110%
3–08%
3–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Arsenal

7 points from 3 matches, goal difference +4

  1. MD1WNapoli A1–0
  2. MD2WLille H3–0
  3. MD3DBayern München A2–2
  4. MD4Slavia Praha A4 November
  5. MD5Borussia Dortmund H this match24 November
  6. MD6Real Madrid H9 December
  7. MD7Real Betis A20 January
  8. MD8Sabah H27 January

Borussia Dortmund

6 points from 3 matches, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WVillarreal H3–2
  2. MD2LBodø/Glimt A0–1
  3. MD3WSabah A2–1
  4. MD4Real Betis H4 November
  5. MD5Arsenal A this match24 November
  6. MD6Inter H9 December
  7. MD7Aston Villa A19 January
  8. MD8AEK Athens H27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Arsenal vs Dortmund?

The model gives Arsenal a 66% chance of winning and Borussia Dortmund 14%, with a draw at 20%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 2–0 (12%), followed by 1–0 (12%).

Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Dortmund?

The model gives both teams scoring a 49% chance. Expected goals are 2.0 for Arsenal and 0.8 for Borussia Dortmund, and the match has 3 or more goals in 54% of cases.

What does this match mean for Arsenal?

Arsenal's top-8 chance is 86% right now. A win would make it 95%, a draw 77% and a defeat 63%.

What does this match mean for Borussia Dortmund?

Borussia Dortmund's qualification chance is 95% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 97% and a defeat 93%.

When is Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund played?

Tuesday 24 November, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →