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Paris Saint-Germain vs Roma: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Wednesday 25 November, 21:00

Paris Saint-Germain1st, 9 pts
–Matchday 5
Roma15th, 4 pts
76%Paris Saint-Germain win
15%Draw
8%Roma win

The model gives Paris Saint-Germain a 76% chance of winning, a draw 15% and Roma 8%. Paris Saint-Germain's top-8 chance is 96% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 85%. Roma's chance of going through is 77% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 74%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeParis Saint-Germain: top 8Paris Saint-Germain: throughRoma: top 8Roma: through
Now96%100%5%77%
Paris Saint-Germain win98%100%3%74%
Draw92%100%6%85%
Roma win85%100%20%97%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

2.4 – 0.7Expected goals
45%Both teams score
60%3 or more goals
51%Paris Saint-Germain clean sheet
9%Roma clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–013%
1–011%
3–011%
2–19%
1–17%
3–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Paris Saint-Germain

9 points from 3 matches, goal difference +9

  1. MD1WSlovan Bratislava H6–1
  2. MD2WManchester City A4–2
  3. MD3WBarcelona H4–2
  4. MD4Villarreal A3 November
  5. MD5Roma H this match25 November
  6. MD6Aston Villa A8 December
  7. MD7Como A20 January
  8. MD8Galatasaray H27 January

Roma

4 points from 3 matches, goal difference +3

  1. MD1DFenerbahçe A1–1
  2. MD2LReal Madrid H3–4
  3. MD3WSlovan Bratislava H4–0
  4. MD4Manchester United A3 November
  5. MD5Paris Saint-Germain A this match25 November
  6. MD6Sporting CP H8 December
  7. MD7AEK Athens A19 January
  8. MD8Lille H27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in PSG vs Roma?

The model gives Paris Saint-Germain a 76% chance of winning and Roma 8%, with a draw at 15%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 2–0 (13%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in PSG vs Roma?

The model gives both teams scoring a 45% chance. Expected goals are 2.4 for Paris Saint-Germain and 0.7 for Roma, and the match has 3 or more goals in 60% of cases.

What does this match mean for Paris Saint-Germain?

Paris Saint-Germain's top-8 chance is 96% right now. A win would make it 98%, a draw 92% and a defeat 85%.

What does this match mean for Roma?

Roma's qualification chance is 77% right now. A win would make it 97%, a draw 85% and a defeat 74%.

When is Paris Saint-Germain vs Roma played?

Wednesday 25 November, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →