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Lille vs Bayern München: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Wednesday 25 November, 21:00

Lille35th, 0 pts
–Matchday 5
Bayern München14th, 5 pts
13%Lille win
20%Draw
67%Bayern München win

The model gives Lille a 13% chance of winning, a draw 20% and Bayern München 67%. Lille's chance of going through is 14% now: a win would take it to 39%, a defeat to 9%. Bayern München's top-8 chance is 64% now: a win would take it to 75%, a defeat to 31%. The most likely score is 0–2 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeLille: top 8Lille: throughBayern München: top 8Bayern München: through
Now<1%14%64%>99%
Lille win<1%39%31%98%
Draw0%16%49%99%
Bayern München win0%9%75%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

0.8 – 2.1Expected goals
48%Both teams score
55%3 or more goals
13%Lille clean sheet
45%Bayern München clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–212%
0–112%
1–210%
1–19%
0–38%
1–37%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Lille

0 points from 3 matches, goal difference -6

  1. MD1LReal Betis H2–3
  2. MD2LArsenal A0–3
  3. MD3LGalatasaray H2–4
  4. MD4Bodø/Glimt A3 November
  5. MD5Bayern München H this match25 November
  6. MD6Stuttgart A9 December
  7. MD7Slovan Bratislava H19 January
  8. MD8Roma A27 January

Bayern München

5 points from 3 matches, goal difference +5

  1. MD1WBodø/Glimt H5–0
  2. MD2DViking A3–3
  3. MD3DArsenal H2–2
  4. MD4Atlético de Madrid A3 November
  5. MD5Lille A this match25 November
  6. MD6Slavia Praha H8 December
  7. MD7Manchester United A20 January
  8. MD8Real Betis H27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Lille vs Bayern Munich?

The model gives Lille a 13% chance of winning and Bayern München 67%, with a draw at 20%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 0–2 (12%), followed by 0–1 (12%).

Will both teams score in Lille vs Bayern Munich?

The model gives both teams scoring a 48% chance. Expected goals are 0.8 for Lille and 2.1 for Bayern München, and the match has 3 or more goals in 55% of cases.

What does this match mean for Lille?

Lille's qualification chance is 14% right now. A win would make it 39%, a draw 16% and a defeat 9%.

What does this match mean for Bayern München?

Bayern München's top-8 chance is 64% right now. A win would make it 75%, a draw 49% and a defeat 31%.

When is Lille vs Bayern München played?

Wednesday 25 November, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →