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Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fenerbahçe: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Wednesday 25 November, 21:00

Shakhtar Donetsk17th, 4 pts
–Matchday 5
Fenerbahçe31st, 2 pts
38%Shakhtar Donetsk win
26%Draw
35%Fenerbahçe win

The model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 38% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Fenerbahçe 35%. Shakhtar Donetsk's chance of going through is 62% now: a win would take it to 84%, a defeat to 40%. Fenerbahçe's chance of going through is 30% now: a win would take it to 52%, a defeat to 13%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeShakhtar Donetsk: top 8Shakhtar Donetsk: throughFenerbahçe: top 8Fenerbahçe: through
Now2%62%<1%30%
Shakhtar Donetsk win4%84%0%13%
Draw1%58%<1%24%
Fenerbahçe win<1%40%1%52%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.3 – 1.3Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
28%Shakhtar Donetsk clean sheet
26%Fenerbahçe clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Shakhtar Donetsk

4 points from 3 matches, goal difference +1

  1. MD1DPSV Eindhoven A1–1
  2. MD2WAEK Athens H3–1
  3. MD3LInter A0–1
  4. MD4Sporting CP H3 November
  5. MD5Fenerbahçe H this match25 November
  6. MD6Slovan Bratislava A9 December
  7. MD7Leipzig A20 January
  8. MD8Real Madrid H27 January

Fenerbahçe

2 points from 3 matches, goal difference -6

  1. MD1DRoma H1–1
  2. MD2LAston Villa A0–6
  3. MD3DSlavia Praha H2–2
  4. MD4Liverpool H4 November
  5. MD5Shakhtar Donetsk A this match25 November
  6. MD6LASK A9 December
  7. MD7Villarreal H20 January
  8. MD8Atlético de Madrid A27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fenerbahçe?

The model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 38% chance of winning and Fenerbahçe 35%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 1–0 (10%).

Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fenerbahçe?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.3 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.3 for Fenerbahçe, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Shakhtar Donetsk?

Shakhtar Donetsk's qualification chance is 62% right now. A win would make it 84%, a draw 58% and a defeat 40%.

What does this match mean for Fenerbahçe?

Fenerbahçe's qualification chance is 30% right now. A win would make it 52%, a draw 24% and a defeat 13%.

When is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fenerbahçe played?

Wednesday 25 November, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →