Knockout Math
Live
EN

Feyenoord vs Porto: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Tuesday 24 November, 21:00

Feyenoord26th, 3 pts
–Matchday 5
Porto34th, 0 pts
39%Feyenoord win
26%Draw
35%Porto win

The model gives Feyenoord a 39% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Porto 35%. Feyenoord's chance of going through is 57% now: a win would take it to 79%, a defeat to 36%. Porto's chance of going through is 27% now: a win would take it to 50%, a defeat to 11%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeFeyenoord: top 8Feyenoord: throughPorto: top 8Porto: through
Now2%57%<1%27%
Feyenoord win4%79%0%11%
Draw1%52%0%21%
Porto win<1%36%<1%50%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.3 – 1.2Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
29%Feyenoord clean sheet
26%Porto clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Feyenoord

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -4

  1. MD1LBarcelona A1–5
  2. MD2WComo H3–2
  3. MD3LReal Betis A0–1
  4. MD4Inter H3 November
  5. MD5Porto H this match24 November
  6. MD6Viking A8 December
  7. MD7Galatasaray A19 January
  8. MD8Leipzig H27 January

Porto

0 points from 3 matches, goal difference -4

  1. MD1LManchester City H0–2
  2. MD2LReal Betis A2–3
  3. MD3LPSV Eindhoven H0–1
  4. MD4Napoli H4 November
  5. MD5Feyenoord A this match24 November
  6. MD6Liverpool A9 December
  7. MD7Slavia Praha H19 January
  8. MD8LASK A27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Feyenoord vs Porto?

The model gives Feyenoord a 39% chance of winning and Porto 35%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 1–0 (10%).

Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Porto?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.3 for Feyenoord and 1.2 for Porto, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Feyenoord?

Feyenoord's qualification chance is 57% right now. A win would make it 79%, a draw 52% and a defeat 36%.

What does this match mean for Porto?

Porto's qualification chance is 27% right now. A win would make it 50%, a draw 21% and a defeat 11%.

When is Feyenoord vs Porto played?

Tuesday 24 November, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →