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Barcelona vs Manchester City: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Tuesday 8 December, 21:00

Barcelona8th, 6 pts
–Matchday 6
Manchester City10th, 6 pts
49%Barcelona win
25%Draw
26%Manchester City win

The model gives Barcelona a 49% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Manchester City 26%. Barcelona's top-8 chance is 71% now: a win would take it to 87%, a defeat to 47%. Manchester City's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to 100%, a defeat to 98%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeBarcelona: top 8Barcelona: throughManchester City: top 8Manchester City: through
Now71%>99%45%99%
Barcelona win87%100%29%98%
Draw64%>99%46%99%
Manchester City win47%99%73%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.6 – 1.1Expected goals
52%Both teams score
49%3 or more goals
34%Barcelona clean sheet
21%Manchester City clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Barcelona

6 points from 3 matches, goal difference +5

  1. MD1WFeyenoord H5–1
  2. MD2WGalatasaray A4–1
  3. MD3LParis Saint-Germain A2–4
  4. MD4Aston Villa H3 November
  5. MD5Sabah A25 November
  6. MD6Manchester City H this match8 December
  7. MD7Sporting CP A20 January
  8. MD8Como H27 January

Manchester City

6 points from 3 matches, goal difference +4

  1. MD1WPorto A2–0
  2. MD2LParis Saint-Germain H2–4
  3. MD3WAEK Athens H5–1
  4. MD4Leipzig A4 November
  5. MD5Napoli H24 November
  6. MD6Barcelona A this match8 December
  7. MD7Lens A20 January
  8. MD8Sporting CP H27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Barcelona vs Man City?

The model gives Barcelona a 49% chance of winning and Manchester City 26%, with a draw at 25%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Barcelona vs Man City?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.6 for Barcelona and 1.1 for Manchester City, and the match has 3 or more goals in 49% of cases.

What does this match mean for Barcelona?

Barcelona's top-8 chance is 71% right now. A win would make it 87%, a draw 64% and a defeat 47%.

What does this match mean for Manchester City?

Manchester City's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it 100%, a draw 99% and a defeat 98%.

When is Barcelona vs Manchester City played?

Tuesday 8 December, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →