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Napoli vs Club Brugge: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Tuesday 8 December, 21:00

Napoli22nd, 3 pts
–Matchday 6
Club Brugge11th, 6 pts
53%Napoli win
24%Draw
22%Club Brugge win

The model gives Napoli a 53% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Club Brugge 22%. Napoli's chance of going through is 89% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 74%. Club Brugge's chance of going through is 87% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 80%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeNapoli: top 8Napoli: throughClub Brugge: top 8Club Brugge: through
Now9%89%10%87%
Napoli win15%97%4%80%
Draw3%85%9%90%
Club Brugge win1%74%24%99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.7 – 1.0Expected goals
51%Both teams score
50%3 or more goals
37%Napoli clean sheet
19%Club Brugge clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
1–112%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Napoli

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -2

  1. MD1LArsenal H0–1
  2. MD2LVillarreal A1–3
  3. MD3WBodø/Glimt H4–3
  4. MD4Porto A4 November
  5. MD5Manchester City A24 November
  6. MD6Club Brugge H this match8 December
  7. MD7Sabah A20 January
  8. MD8Viking H27 January

Club Brugge

6 points from 3 matches, goal difference +3

  1. MD1LAston Villa H2–3
  2. MD2WInter A4–3
  3. MD3WLens H3–0
  4. MD4PSV Eindhoven A4 November
  5. MD5Liverpool H25 November
  6. MD6Napoli A this match8 December
  7. MD7Stuttgart A19 January
  8. MD8Bodø/Glimt H27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Napoli vs Club Brugge?

The model gives Napoli a 53% chance of winning and Club Brugge 22%, with a draw at 24%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 1–1 (12%).

Will both teams score in Napoli vs Club Brugge?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.7 for Napoli and 1.0 for Club Brugge, and the match has 3 or more goals in 50% of cases.

What does this match mean for Napoli?

Napoli's qualification chance is 89% right now. A win would make it 97%, a draw 85% and a defeat 74%.

What does this match mean for Club Brugge?

Club Brugge's qualification chance is 87% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 90% and a defeat 80%.

When is Napoli vs Club Brugge played?

Tuesday 8 December, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →