Knockout Math
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Bayern München vs Slavia Praha: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Tuesday 8 December, 21:00

Bayern München2nd, 3 pts
–Matchday 6
Slavia Praha22nd, 0 pts
84%Bayern München win
11%Draw
5%Slavia Praha win

The model gives Bayern München a 84% chance of winning, a draw 11% and Slavia Praha 5%. Bayern München's top-8 chance is 83% now: a win would take it to 86%, a defeat to 57%. Slavia Praha's chance of going through is 21% now: a win would take it to 53%, a defeat to 18%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Bayern München: top 8Bayern München: throughSlavia Praha: top 8Slavia Praha: through
Now83%>99%<1%21%
Bayern München win86%>99%<1%18%
Draw67%99%<1%28%
Slavia Praha win57%99%2%53%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–013%
3–013%
4–09%
1–09%
2–18%
3–17%

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