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Bayern München vs Slavia Praha: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Tuesday 8 December, 21:00

Bayern München14th, 5 pts
–Matchday 6
Slavia Praha32nd, 1 pt
87%Bayern München win
9%Draw
4%Slavia Praha win

The model gives Bayern München a 87% chance of winning, a draw 9% and Slavia Praha 4%. Bayern München's top-8 chance is 64% now: a win would take it to 68%, a defeat to 25%. Slavia Praha's chance of going through is 4% now: a win would take it to 21%, a defeat to 3%. The most likely score is 3–0 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeBayern München: top 8Bayern München: throughSlavia Praha: top 8Slavia Praha: through
Now64%>99%<1%4%
Bayern München win68%>99%0%3%
Draw41%99%0%7%
Slavia Praha win25%97%<1%21%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

3.1 – 0.5Expected goals
40%Both teams score
70%3 or more goals
58%Bayern München clean sheet
5%Slavia Praha clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

3–013%
2–013%
4–010%
1–08%
3–17%
2–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Bayern München

5 points from 3 matches, goal difference +5

  1. MD1WBodø/Glimt H5–0
  2. MD2DViking A3–3
  3. MD3DArsenal H2–2
  4. MD4Atlético de Madrid A3 November
  5. MD5Lille A25 November
  6. MD6Slavia Praha H this match8 December
  7. MD7Manchester United A20 January
  8. MD8Real Betis H27 January

Slavia Praha

1 point from 3 matches, goal difference -3

  1. MD1LLens H2–3
  2. MD2LSabah A0–2
  3. MD3DFenerbahçe A2–2
  4. MD4Arsenal H4 November
  5. MD5Villarreal H25 November
  6. MD6Bayern München A this match8 December
  7. MD7Porto A19 January
  8. MD8Aston Villa H27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Bayern Munich vs Slavia Prague?

The model gives Bayern München a 87% chance of winning and Slavia Praha 4%, with a draw at 9%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 3–0 (13%), followed by 2–0 (13%).

Will both teams score in Bayern Munich vs Slavia Prague?

The model gives both teams scoring a 40% chance. Expected goals are 3.1 for Bayern München and 0.5 for Slavia Praha, and the match has 3 or more goals in 70% of cases.

What does this match mean for Bayern München?

Bayern München's top-8 chance is 64% right now. A win would make it 68%, a draw 41% and a defeat 25%.

What does this match mean for Slavia Praha?

Slavia Praha's qualification chance is 4% right now. A win would make it 21%, a draw 7% and a defeat 3%.

When is Bayern München vs Slavia Praha played?

Tuesday 8 December, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →