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Arsenal vs Real Madrid: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Wednesday 9 December, 21:00

Arsenal7th, 7 pts
–Matchday 6
Real Madrid4th, 9 pts
45%Arsenal win
26%Draw
29%Real Madrid win

The model gives Arsenal a 45% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Real Madrid 29%. Arsenal's top-8 chance is 86% now: a win would take it to 96%, a defeat to 74%. Real Madrid's top-8 chance is 96% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 94%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeArsenal: top 8Arsenal: throughReal Madrid: top 8Real Madrid: through
Now86%100%96%100%
Arsenal win96%100%94%100%
Draw84%100%97%100%
Real Madrid win74%100%99%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.5 – 1.1Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
32%Arsenal clean sheet
23%Real Madrid clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Arsenal

7 points from 3 matches, goal difference +4

  1. MD1WNapoli A1–0
  2. MD2WLille H3–0
  3. MD3DBayern München A2–2
  4. MD4Slavia Praha A4 November
  5. MD5Borussia Dortmund H24 November
  6. MD6Real Madrid H this match9 December
  7. MD7Real Betis A20 January
  8. MD8Sabah H27 January

Real Madrid

9 points from 3 matches, goal difference +5

  1. MD1WInter H2–1
  2. MD2WRoma A4–3
  3. MD3WLeipzig H4–1
  4. MD4AEK Athens A4 November
  5. MD5PSV Eindhoven H24 November
  6. MD6Arsenal A this match9 December
  7. MD7LASK H19 January
  8. MD8Shakhtar Donetsk A27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Arsenal vs Real Madrid?

The model gives Arsenal a 45% chance of winning and Real Madrid 29%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Real Madrid?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.5 for Arsenal and 1.1 for Real Madrid, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Arsenal?

Arsenal's top-8 chance is 86% right now. A win would make it 96%, a draw 84% and a defeat 74%.

What does this match mean for Real Madrid?

Real Madrid's top-8 chance is 96% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 97% and a defeat 94%.

When is Arsenal vs Real Madrid played?

Wednesday 9 December, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →