Arsenal vs Real Madrid: what's at stake in the Champions League?
← Champions League: full table and chances
Matchday 6 · Wednesday 9 December, 21:00
Arsenal15th, 3 pts
–Matchday 6
Real Madrid13th, 3 pts
45%Arsenal win
26%Draw
29%Real Madrid win
The model gives Arsenal a 45% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Real Madrid 29%. Arsenal's top-8 chance is 77% now: a win would take it to 89%, a defeat to 60%. Real Madrid's top-8 chance is 81% now: a win would take it to 94%, a defeat to 71%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Arsenal: top 8 | Arsenal: through | Real Madrid: top 8 | Real Madrid: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 77% | >99% | 81% | >99% |
| Arsenal win | 89% | 100% | 71% | 99% |
| Draw | 73% | >99% | 82% | >99% |
| Real Madrid win | 60% | 99% | 94% | 100% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
0–07%
Other matchday 6 fixtures
- Viking – Feyenoord
- Villarreal – Sabah
- AEK Athens – Galatasaray
- Roma – Sporting CP
- Aston Villa – Paris Saint-Germain
- Barcelona – Manchester City
- Bayern München – Slavia Praha
- Manchester United – Leipzig
- Napoli – Club Brugge
- Real Betis – Como
- Slovan Bratislava – Shakhtar Donetsk
- Borussia Dortmund – Inter
- LASK – Fenerbahçe
- Liverpool – Porto
- Lens – Bodø/Glimt
- PSV Eindhoven – Atlético de Madrid
- Stuttgart – Lille