Knockout Math
Live
EN

Borussia Dortmund vs Inter: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Wednesday 9 December, 21:00

Borussia Dortmund13th, 6 pts
–Matchday 6
Inter20th, 3 pts
35%Borussia Dortmund win
26%Draw
39%Inter win

The model gives Borussia Dortmund a 35% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Inter 39%. Borussia Dortmund's chance of going through is 95% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 90%. Inter's chance of going through is 89% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 80%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeBorussia Dortmund: top 8Borussia Dortmund: throughInter: top 8Inter: through
Now18%95%11%89%
Borussia Dortmund win34%>99%2%80%
Draw13%95%7%88%
Inter win6%90%23%98%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.3 – 1.3Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
26%Borussia Dortmund clean sheet
29%Inter clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Borussia Dortmund

6 points from 3 matches, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WVillarreal H3–2
  2. MD2LBodø/Glimt A0–1
  3. MD3WSabah A2–1
  4. MD4Real Betis H4 November
  5. MD5Arsenal A24 November
  6. MD6Inter H this match9 December
  7. MD7Aston Villa A19 January
  8. MD8AEK Athens H27 January

Inter

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LReal Madrid A1–2
  2. MD2LClub Brugge H3–4
  3. MD3WShakhtar Donetsk H1–0
  4. MD4Feyenoord A3 November
  5. MD5Stuttgart H25 November
  6. MD6Borussia Dortmund A this match9 December
  7. MD7Liverpool H19 January
  8. MD8Slovan Bratislava A27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Dortmund vs Inter Milan?

The model gives Borussia Dortmund a 35% chance of winning and Inter 39%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 0–1 (10%).

Will both teams score in Dortmund vs Inter Milan?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.3 for Borussia Dortmund and 1.3 for Inter, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Borussia Dortmund?

Borussia Dortmund's qualification chance is 95% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 95% and a defeat 90%.

What does this match mean for Inter?

Inter's qualification chance is 89% right now. A win would make it 98%, a draw 88% and a defeat 80%.

When is Borussia Dortmund vs Inter played?

Wednesday 9 December, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →