PSV Eindhoven vs Atlético de Madrid: what's at stake in the Champions League?
← Champions League: full table and chances
Matchday 6 · Wednesday 9 December, 21:00
The model gives PSV Eindhoven a 30% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Atlético de Madrid 44%. PSV Eindhoven's chance of going through is 77% now: a win would take it to 94%, a defeat to 65%. Atlético de Madrid's chance of going through is 96% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 91%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | PSV Eindhoven: top 8 | PSV Eindhoven: through | Atlético de Madrid: top 8 | Atlético de Madrid: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 5% | 77% | 24% | 96% |
| PSV Eindhoven win | 13% | 94% | 7% | 91% |
| Draw | 2% | 78% | 15% | 96% |
| Atlético de Madrid win | 1% | 65% | 41% | 99% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
PSV Eindhoven
- MD1DShakhtar Donetsk H1–1
- MD2LLeipzig A0–1
- MD3WPorto A1–0
- MD4Club Brugge H4 November
- MD5Real Madrid A24 November
- MD6Atlético de Madrid H this match9 December
- MD7Viking A20 January
- MD8Stuttgart H27 January
Atlético de Madrid
- MD1LLiverpool A1–2
- MD2WManchester United H2–0
- MD3DStuttgart A1–1
- MD4Bayern München H3 November
- MD5Viking H25 November
- MD6PSV Eindhoven A this match9 December
- MD7Bodø/Glimt A19 January
- MD8Fenerbahçe H27 January
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in PSV vs Atlético Madrid?
The model gives PSV Eindhoven a 30% chance of winning and Atlético de Madrid 44%, with a draw at 26%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 0–1 (11%).
Will both teams score in PSV vs Atlético Madrid?
The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.2 for PSV Eindhoven and 1.4 for Atlético de Madrid, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.
What does this match mean for PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven's qualification chance is 77% right now. A win would make it 94%, a draw 78% and a defeat 65%.
What does this match mean for Atlético de Madrid?
Atlético de Madrid's qualification chance is 96% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 96% and a defeat 91%.
When is PSV Eindhoven vs Atlético de Madrid played?
Wednesday 9 December, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 6).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 6 fixtures
- Viking – Feyenoord
- Villarreal – Sabah
- AEK Athens – Galatasaray
- Roma – Sporting CP
- Aston Villa – Paris Saint-Germain
- Barcelona – Manchester City
- Bayern München – Slavia Praha
- Manchester United – Leipzig
- Napoli – Club Brugge
- Real Betis – Como
- Slovan Bratislava – Shakhtar Donetsk
- Arsenal – Real Madrid
- Borussia Dortmund – Inter
- LASK – Fenerbahçe
- Liverpool – Porto
- Lens – Bodø/Glimt
- Stuttgart – Lille