Roma 3–4 Real Madrid
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Matchday 2 · Wednesday 14 October, 21:00
Real Madrid won 4–3 away at Roma on matchday 2. After the match, Roma are 15th with 4 points, with a 77% chance of going through (top 8: 5%). Real Madrid are now 4th with 9 points, with a 100% chance of going through (top 8: 96%).
Before kick-off
What the model expected, based on team ratings before matchday 2.
The outcome the model rated most likely (54%). The model's most likely score was 0–1 (12%); the actual score had a <1% chance. Expected goals before the match: Roma 1.0, Real Madrid 1.7.
Chances before and now
Before matchday 2 compared with now, after all results so far (including later matchdays).
| Team | Position | Through (top 24) | Top 8 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roma | 17th → 15th | 74% → 77% | 7% → 5% |
| Real Madrid | 13th → 4th | >99% → 100% | 82% → 96% |
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Roma
- MD1DFenerbahçe A1–1
- MD2LReal Madrid H this match3–4
- MD3WSlovan Bratislava H4–0
- MD4Manchester United A3 November
- MD5Paris Saint-Germain A25 November
- MD6Sporting CP H8 December
- MD7AEK Athens A19 January
- MD8Lille H27 January
Real Madrid
- MD1WInter H2–1
- MD2WRoma A this match4–3
- MD3WLeipzig H4–1
- MD4AEK Athens A4 November
- MD5PSV Eindhoven H24 November
- MD6Arsenal A9 December
- MD7LASK H19 January
- MD8Shakhtar Donetsk A27 January
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Roma vs Real Madrid?
The match finished 3–4 (Champions League, matchday 2).
Was Roma vs Real Madrid a surprise?
Before kick-off the model gave Roma a 22% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Real Madrid 54%. The outcome the model rated most likely (54%). The model's most likely score was 0–1 (12%); the actual score had a <1% chance.
How did the result change Roma's chances?
Before matchday 2, Roma had a 74% chance of going through (top 8: 7%). Now it is 77% (top 8: 5%).
How did the result change Real Madrid's chances?
Before matchday 2, Real Madrid had a >99% chance of going through (top 8: 82%). Now it is 100% (top 8: 96%).
When was Roma vs Real Madrid played?
Wednesday 14 October, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 2).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 2 fixtures
- Lens – Sporting CP (0–2)
- Sabah – Slavia Praha (2–0)
- Arsenal – Lille (3–0)
- Atlético de Madrid – Manchester United (2–0)
- Inter – Club Brugge (3–4)
- Galatasaray – Barcelona (1–4)
- Leipzig – PSV Eindhoven (1–0)
- Viking – Bayern München (3–3)
- Villarreal – Napoli (3–1)
- Feyenoord – Como (3–2)
- LASK – Liverpool (3–6)
- Aston Villa – Fenerbahçe (6–0)
- Shakhtar Donetsk – AEK Athens (3–1)
- Bodø/Glimt – Borussia Dortmund (1–0)
- Manchester City – Paris Saint-Germain (2–4)
- Real Betis – Porto (3–2)
- Slovan Bratislava – Stuttgart (0–3)