Knockout Math
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Roma vs Real Madrid: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Wednesday 14 October, 21:00

Roma17th, 1 pts
–Matchday 2
Real Madrid13th, 3 pts
22%Roma win
24%Draw
53%Real Madrid win

The model gives Roma a 22% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Real Madrid 53%. Roma's chance of going through is 73% now: a win would take it to 91%, a defeat to 65%. Real Madrid's top-8 chance is 81% now: a win would take it to 91%, a defeat to 62%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Roma: top 8Roma: throughReal Madrid: top 8Real Madrid: through
Now8%73%81%>99%
Roma win20%91%62%99%
Draw7%77%76%>99%
Real Madrid win3%65%91%100%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
1–112%
0–210%
1–210%
0–07%
1–07%

Other matchday 2 fixtures