Knockout Math
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Stuttgart vs Lille: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Wednesday 9 December, 21:00

Stuttgart7th, 3 pts
–Matchday 6
Lille24th, 0 pts
47%Stuttgart win
26%Draw
28%Lille win

The model gives Stuttgart a 47% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Lille 28%. Stuttgart's chance of going through is 88% now: a win would take it to 96%, a defeat to 76%. Lille's chance of going through is 47% now: a win would take it to 70%, a defeat to 33%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Stuttgart: top 8Stuttgart: throughLille: top 8Lille: through
Now20%88%2%47%
Stuttgart win31%96%<1%33%
Draw13%85%1%46%
Lille win8%76%5%70%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–08%
0–18%
0–07%

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