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Stuttgart vs Lille: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Wednesday 9 December, 21:00

Stuttgart6th, 7 pts
–Matchday 6
Lille35th, 0 pts
53%Stuttgart win
24%Draw
22%Lille win

The model gives Stuttgart a 53% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Lille 22%. Stuttgart's chance of going through is 97% now: a win would take it to 100%, a defeat to 91%. Lille's chance of going through is 14% now: a win would take it to 35%, a defeat to 6%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeStuttgart: top 8Stuttgart: throughLille: top 8Lille: through
Now29%97%<1%14%
Stuttgart win43%100%0%6%
Draw18%97%0%12%
Lille win10%91%<1%35%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.7 – 1.0Expected goals
51%Both teams score
50%3 or more goals
37%Stuttgart clean sheet
19%Lille clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
1–112%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Stuttgart

7 points from 3 matches, goal difference +5

  1. MD1WViking H3–1
  2. MD2WSlovan Bratislava A3–0
  3. MD3DAtlético de Madrid H1–1
  4. MD4Galatasaray A3 November
  5. MD5Inter A25 November
  6. MD6Lille H this match9 December
  7. MD7Club Brugge H19 January
  8. MD8PSV Eindhoven A27 January

Lille

0 points from 3 matches, goal difference -6

  1. MD1LReal Betis H2–3
  2. MD2LArsenal A0–3
  3. MD3LGalatasaray H2–4
  4. MD4Bodø/Glimt A3 November
  5. MD5Bayern München H25 November
  6. MD6Stuttgart A this match9 December
  7. MD7Slovan Bratislava H19 January
  8. MD8Roma A27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Stuttgart vs Lille?

The model gives Stuttgart a 53% chance of winning and Lille 22%, with a draw at 24%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 1–1 (12%).

Will both teams score in Stuttgart vs Lille?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.7 for Stuttgart and 1.0 for Lille, and the match has 3 or more goals in 50% of cases.

What does this match mean for Stuttgart?

Stuttgart's qualification chance is 97% right now. A win would make it 100%, a draw 97% and a defeat 91%.

What does this match mean for Lille?

Lille's qualification chance is 14% right now. A win would make it 35%, a draw 12% and a defeat 6%.

When is Stuttgart vs Lille played?

Wednesday 9 December, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →