Knockout Math
Live
EN

AEK Athens vs Galatasaray: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Tuesday 8 December, 21:00

AEK Athens29th, 3 pts
–Matchday 6
Galatasaray23rd, 3 pts
30%AEK Athens win
26%Draw
44%Galatasaray win

The model gives AEK Athens a 30% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Galatasaray 44%. AEK Athens's chance of going through is 19% now: a win would take it to 39%, a defeat to 7%. Galatasaray's chance of going through is 55% now: a win would take it to 76%, a defeat to 31%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeAEK Athens: top 8AEK Athens: throughGalatasaray: top 8Galatasaray: through
Now<1%19%1%55%
AEK Athens win<1%39%<1%31%
Draw<1%15%<1%46%
Galatasaray win0%7%2%76%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.1 – 1.5Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
23%AEK Athens clean sheet
32%Galatasaray clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
1–08%
0–28%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

AEK Athens

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -5

  1. MD1WLASK H1–0
  2. MD2LShakhtar Donetsk A1–3
  3. MD3LManchester City A1–5
  4. MD4Real Madrid H4 November
  5. MD5Como A24 November
  6. MD6Galatasaray H this match8 December
  7. MD7Roma H19 January
  8. MD8Borussia Dortmund A27 January

Galatasaray

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -3

  1. MD1LSporting CP A1–3
  2. MD2LBarcelona H1–4
  3. MD3WLille A4–2
  4. MD4Stuttgart H3 November
  5. MD5Aston Villa H24 November
  6. MD6AEK Athens A this match8 December
  7. MD7Feyenoord H19 January
  8. MD8Paris Saint-Germain A27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in AEK Athens vs Galatasaray?

The model gives AEK Athens a 30% chance of winning and Galatasaray 44%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 0–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in AEK Athens vs Galatasaray?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.1 for AEK Athens and 1.5 for Galatasaray, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for AEK Athens?

AEK Athens's qualification chance is 19% right now. A win would make it 39%, a draw 15% and a defeat 7%.

What does this match mean for Galatasaray?

Galatasaray's qualification chance is 55% right now. A win would make it 76%, a draw 46% and a defeat 31%.

When is AEK Athens vs Galatasaray played?

Tuesday 8 December, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →