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Liverpool vs Porto: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Wednesday 9 December, 21:00

Liverpool3rd, 9 pts
–Matchday 6
Porto34th, 0 pts
72%Liverpool win
17%Draw
11%Porto win

The model gives Liverpool a 72% chance of winning, a draw 17% and Porto 11%. Liverpool's top-8 chance is 92% now: a win would take it to 96%, a defeat to 75%. Porto's chance of going through is 27% now: a win would take it to 60%, a defeat to 21%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeLiverpool: top 8Liverpool: throughPorto: top 8Porto: through
Now92%100%<1%27%
Liverpool win96%100%0%21%
Draw85%100%0%33%
Porto win75%100%1%60%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

2.3 – 0.7Expected goals
47%Both teams score
58%3 or more goals
48%Liverpool clean sheet
10%Porto clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–013%
1–011%
3–010%
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Liverpool

9 points from 3 matches, goal difference +5

  1. MD1WAtlético de Madrid H2–1
  2. MD2WLASK A6–3
  3. MD3WVillarreal H4–3
  4. MD4Fenerbahçe A4 November
  5. MD5Club Brugge A25 November
  6. MD6Porto H this match9 December
  7. MD7Inter A19 January
  8. MD8Lens H27 January

Porto

0 points from 3 matches, goal difference -4

  1. MD1LManchester City H0–2
  2. MD2LReal Betis A2–3
  3. MD3LPSV Eindhoven H0–1
  4. MD4Napoli H4 November
  5. MD5Feyenoord A24 November
  6. MD6Liverpool A this match9 December
  7. MD7Slavia Praha H19 January
  8. MD8LASK A27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Liverpool vs Porto?

The model gives Liverpool a 72% chance of winning and Porto 11%, with a draw at 17%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 2–0 (13%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Porto?

The model gives both teams scoring a 47% chance. Expected goals are 2.3 for Liverpool and 0.7 for Porto, and the match has 3 or more goals in 58% of cases.

What does this match mean for Liverpool?

Liverpool's top-8 chance is 92% right now. A win would make it 96%, a draw 85% and a defeat 75%.

What does this match mean for Porto?

Porto's qualification chance is 27% right now. A win would make it 60%, a draw 33% and a defeat 21%.

When is Liverpool vs Porto played?

Wednesday 9 December, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →