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Roma vs Lille: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Wednesday 27 January, 21:00

Roma15th, 4 pts
–Matchday 8
Lille35th, 0 pts
53%Roma win
24%Draw
23%Lille win

The model gives Roma a 53% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Lille 23%. Roma's chance of going through is 77% now: a win would take it to 91%, a defeat to 53%. Lille's chance of going through is 14% now: a win would take it to 35%, a defeat to 6%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeRoma: top 8Roma: throughLille: top 8Lille: through
Now5%77%<1%14%
Roma win8%91%0%6%
Draw2%71%0%12%
Lille win<1%53%<1%35%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.7 – 1.0Expected goals
51%Both teams score
50%3 or more goals
37%Roma clean sheet
19%Lille clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–012%
2–110%
2–010%
0–17%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Roma

4 points from 3 matches, goal difference +3

  1. MD1DFenerbahçe A1–1
  2. MD2LReal Madrid H3–4
  3. MD3WSlovan Bratislava H4–0
  4. MD4Manchester United A3 November
  5. MD5Paris Saint-Germain A25 November
  6. MD6Sporting CP H8 December
  7. MD7AEK Athens A19 January
  8. MD8Lille H this match27 January

Lille

0 points from 3 matches, goal difference -6

  1. MD1LReal Betis H2–3
  2. MD2LArsenal A0–3
  3. MD3LGalatasaray H2–4
  4. MD4Bodø/Glimt A3 November
  5. MD5Bayern München H25 November
  6. MD6Stuttgart A9 December
  7. MD7Slovan Bratislava H19 January
  8. MD8Roma A this match27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Roma vs Lille?

The model gives Roma a 53% chance of winning and Lille 23%, with a draw at 24%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (12%).

Will both teams score in Roma vs Lille?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.7 for Roma and 1.0 for Lille, and the match has 3 or more goals in 50% of cases.

What does this match mean for Roma?

Roma's qualification chance is 77% right now. A win would make it 91%, a draw 71% and a defeat 53%.

What does this match mean for Lille?

Lille's qualification chance is 14% right now. A win would make it 35%, a draw 12% and a defeat 6%.

When is Roma vs Lille played?

Wednesday 27 January, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 8).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 8 fixtures

Full matchday 8: what every team needs →