Knockout Math
Latviski

Roma vs Lille: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Wednesday 27 January, 21:00

Roma17th, 1 pts
–Matchday 8
Lille24th, 0 pts
48%Roma win
25%Draw
26%Lille win

The model gives Roma a 48% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Lille 26%. Roma's chance of going through is 73% now: a win would take it to 87%, a defeat to 54%. Lille's chance of going through is 47% now: a win would take it to 72%, a defeat to 32%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Roma: top 8Roma: throughLille: top 8Lille: through
Now8%73%2%47%
Roma win13%87%<1%32%
Draw4%69%1%47%
Lille win2%54%5%72%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–07%

Other matchday 8 fixtures