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LASK vs Fenerbahçe: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Wednesday 9 December, 21:00

LASK24th, 3 pts
–Matchday 6
Fenerbahçe31st, 2 pts
28%LASK win
26%Draw
47%Fenerbahçe win

The model gives LASK a 28% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Fenerbahçe 47%. LASK's chance of going through is 31% now: a win would take it to 59%, a defeat to 16%. Fenerbahçe's chance of going through is 30% now: a win would take it to 46%, a defeat to 10%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeLASK: top 8LASK: throughFenerbahçe: top 8Fenerbahçe: through
Now<1%31%<1%30%
LASK win<1%59%0%10%
Draw<1%27%<1%21%
Fenerbahçe win<1%16%1%46%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.1 – 1.5Expected goals
52%Both teams score
49%3 or more goals
22%LASK clean sheet
33%Fenerbahçe clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–28%
1–08%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

LASK

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -3

  1. MD1LAEK Athens A0–1
  2. MD2LLiverpool H3–6
  3. MD3WSporting CP A3–2
  4. MD4Slovan Bratislava H3 November
  5. MD5Bodø/Glimt A24 November
  6. MD6Fenerbahçe H this match9 December
  7. MD7Real Madrid A19 January
  8. MD8Porto H27 January

Fenerbahçe

2 points from 3 matches, goal difference -6

  1. MD1DRoma H1–1
  2. MD2LAston Villa A0–6
  3. MD3DSlavia Praha H2–2
  4. MD4Liverpool H4 November
  5. MD5Shakhtar Donetsk A25 November
  6. MD6LASK A this match9 December
  7. MD7Villarreal H20 January
  8. MD8Atlético de Madrid A27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in LASK vs Fenerbahçe?

The model gives LASK a 28% chance of winning and Fenerbahçe 47%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 0–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in LASK vs Fenerbahçe?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.1 for LASK and 1.5 for Fenerbahçe, and the match has 3 or more goals in 49% of cases.

What does this match mean for LASK?

LASK's qualification chance is 31% right now. A win would make it 59%, a draw 27% and a defeat 16%.

What does this match mean for Fenerbahçe?

Fenerbahçe's qualification chance is 30% right now. A win would make it 46%, a draw 21% and a defeat 10%.

When is LASK vs Fenerbahçe played?

Wednesday 9 December, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →