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Slovan Bratislava vs Shakhtar Donetsk: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Wednesday 9 December, 18:45

Slovan Bratislava36th, 0 pts
–Matchday 6
Shakhtar Donetsk17th, 4 pts
27%Slovan Bratislava win
26%Draw
47%Shakhtar Donetsk win

The model gives Slovan Bratislava a 27% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Shakhtar Donetsk 47%. Slovan Bratislava's chance of going through is 3% now: a win would take it to 8%, a defeat to 1%. Shakhtar Donetsk's chance of going through is 62% now: a win would take it to 80%, a defeat to 36%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeSlovan Bratislava: top 8Slovan Bratislava: throughShakhtar Donetsk: top 8Shakhtar Donetsk: through
Now0%3%2%62%
Slovan Bratislava win0%8%<1%36%
Draw0%2%<1%54%
Shakhtar Donetsk win0%1%4%80%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.1 – 1.5Expected goals
52%Both teams score
49%3 or more goals
22%Slovan Bratislava clean sheet
33%Shakhtar Donetsk clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–28%
1–08%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Slovan Bratislava

0 points from 3 matches, goal difference -12

  1. MD1LParis Saint-Germain A1–6
  2. MD2LStuttgart H0–3
  3. MD3LRoma A0–4
  4. MD4LASK A3 November
  5. MD5Real Betis H24 November
  6. MD6Shakhtar Donetsk H this match9 December
  7. MD7Lille A19 January
  8. MD8Inter H27 January

Shakhtar Donetsk

4 points from 3 matches, goal difference +1

  1. MD1DPSV Eindhoven A1–1
  2. MD2WAEK Athens H3–1
  3. MD3LInter A0–1
  4. MD4Sporting CP H3 November
  5. MD5Fenerbahçe H25 November
  6. MD6Slovan Bratislava A this match9 December
  7. MD7Leipzig A20 January
  8. MD8Real Madrid H27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Slovan Bratislava vs Shakhtar Donetsk?

The model gives Slovan Bratislava a 27% chance of winning and Shakhtar Donetsk 47%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 0–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Slovan Bratislava vs Shakhtar Donetsk?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.1 for Slovan Bratislava and 1.5 for Shakhtar Donetsk, and the match has 3 or more goals in 49% of cases.

What does this match mean for Slovan Bratislava?

Slovan Bratislava's qualification chance is 3% right now. A win would make it 8%, a draw 2% and a defeat 1%.

What does this match mean for Shakhtar Donetsk?

Shakhtar Donetsk's qualification chance is 62% right now. A win would make it 80%, a draw 54% and a defeat 36%.

When is Slovan Bratislava vs Shakhtar Donetsk played?

Wednesday 9 December, 18:45 (Champions League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →