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Real Betis vs Como: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Wednesday 9 December, 18:45

Real Betis5th, 9 pts
–Matchday 6
Como9th, 6 pts
44%Real Betis win
26%Draw
30%Como win

The model gives Real Betis a 44% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Como 30%. Real Betis's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to 100%, a defeat to 98%. Como's chance of going through is 91% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 84%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeReal Betis: top 8Real Betis: throughComo: top 8Como: through
Now36%99%11%91%
Real Betis win56%100%3%84%
Draw27%>99%8%92%
Como win15%98%25%99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.4 – 1.2Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
32%Real Betis clean sheet
24%Como clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Real Betis

9 points from 3 matches, goal difference +3

  1. MD1WLille A3–2
  2. MD2WPorto H3–2
  3. MD3WFeyenoord H1–0
  4. MD4Borussia Dortmund A4 November
  5. MD5Slovan Bratislava A24 November
  6. MD6Como H this match9 December
  7. MD7Arsenal H20 January
  8. MD8Bayern München A27 January

Como

6 points from 3 matches, goal difference +5

  1. MD1WLeipzig H4–1
  2. MD2LFeyenoord A2–3
  3. MD3WManchester United H4–1
  4. MD4Lens A4 November
  5. MD5AEK Athens H24 November
  6. MD6Real Betis A this match9 December
  7. MD7Paris Saint-Germain H20 January
  8. MD8Barcelona A27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Real Betis vs Como?

The model gives Real Betis a 44% chance of winning and Como 30%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Real Betis vs Como?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.4 for Real Betis and 1.2 for Como, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Real Betis?

Real Betis's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it 100%, a draw >99% and a defeat 98%.

What does this match mean for Como?

Como's qualification chance is 91% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 92% and a defeat 84%.

When is Real Betis vs Como played?

Wednesday 9 December, 18:45 (Champions League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →