Knockout Math
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Lens vs Bodø/Glimt: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Wednesday 9 December, 21:00

Lens10th, 3 pts
–Matchday 6
Bodø/Glimt36th, 0 pts
48%Lens win
25%Draw
26%Bodø/Glimt win

The model gives Lens a 48% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Bodø/Glimt 26%. Lens's chance of going through is 76% now: a win would take it to 89%, a defeat to 57%. Bodø/Glimt's chance of going through is 41% now: a win would take it to 66%, a defeat to 28%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Lens: top 8Lens: throughBodø/Glimt: top 8Bodø/Glimt: through
Now10%76%2%41%
Lens win16%89%<1%28%
Draw6%70%1%41%
Bodø/Glimt win3%57%5%66%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–07%

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