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Lens vs Bodø/Glimt: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Wednesday 9 December, 21:00

Lens27th, 3 pts
–Matchday 6
Bodø/Glimt28th, 3 pts
45%Lens win
26%Draw
29%Bodø/Glimt win

The model gives Lens a 45% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Bodø/Glimt 29%. Lens's chance of going through is 38% now: a win would take it to 58%, a defeat to 16%. Bodø/Glimt's chance of going through is 59% now: a win would take it to 84%, a defeat to 42%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeLens: top 8Lens: throughBodø/Glimt: top 8Bodø/Glimt: through
Now<1%38%2%59%
Lens win1%58%<1%42%
Draw<1%26%1%59%
Bodø/Glimt win<1%16%5%84%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.5 – 1.1Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
33%Lens clean sheet
23%Bodø/Glimt clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Lens

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -4

  1. MD1WSlavia Praha A3–2
  2. MD2LSporting CP H0–2
  3. MD3LClub Brugge A0–3
  4. MD4Como H4 November
  5. MD5Leipzig A24 November
  6. MD6Bodø/Glimt H this match9 December
  7. MD7Manchester City H20 January
  8. MD8Liverpool A27 January

Bodø/Glimt

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -5

  1. MD1LBayern München A0–5
  2. MD2WBorussia Dortmund H1–0
  3. MD3LNapoli A3–4
  4. MD4Lille H3 November
  5. MD5LASK H24 November
  6. MD6Lens A this match9 December
  7. MD7Atlético de Madrid H19 January
  8. MD8Club Brugge A27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Lens vs Bodø/Glimt?

The model gives Lens a 45% chance of winning and Bodø/Glimt 29%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Lens vs Bodø/Glimt?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.5 for Lens and 1.1 for Bodø/Glimt, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Lens?

Lens's qualification chance is 38% right now. A win would make it 58%, a draw 26% and a defeat 16%.

What does this match mean for Bodø/Glimt?

Bodø/Glimt's qualification chance is 59% right now. A win would make it 84%, a draw 59% and a defeat 42%.

When is Lens vs Bodø/Glimt played?

Wednesday 9 December, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →