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AEK Athens vs Roma: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Tuesday 19 January, 21:00

AEK Athens29th, 3 pts
–Matchday 7
Roma15th, 4 pts
26%AEK Athens win
25%Draw
49%Roma win

The model gives AEK Athens a 26% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Roma 49%. AEK Athens's chance of going through is 19% now: a win would take it to 42%, a defeat to 8%. Roma's chance of going through is 77% now: a win would take it to 92%, a defeat to 55%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeAEK Athens: top 8AEK Athens: throughRoma: top 8Roma: through
Now<1%19%5%77%
AEK Athens win<1%42%<1%55%
Draw<1%16%1%72%
Roma win0%8%9%92%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.1 – 1.6Expected goals
52%Both teams score
49%3 or more goals
21%AEK Athens clean sheet
35%Roma clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–29%
1–08%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

AEK Athens

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -5

  1. MD1WLASK H1–0
  2. MD2LShakhtar Donetsk A1–3
  3. MD3LManchester City A1–5
  4. MD4Real Madrid H4 November
  5. MD5Como A24 November
  6. MD6Galatasaray H8 December
  7. MD7Roma H this match19 January
  8. MD8Borussia Dortmund A27 January

Roma

4 points from 3 matches, goal difference +3

  1. MD1DFenerbahçe A1–1
  2. MD2LReal Madrid H3–4
  3. MD3WSlovan Bratislava H4–0
  4. MD4Manchester United A3 November
  5. MD5Paris Saint-Germain A25 November
  6. MD6Sporting CP H8 December
  7. MD7AEK Athens A this match19 January
  8. MD8Lille H27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in AEK Athens vs Roma?

The model gives AEK Athens a 26% chance of winning and Roma 49%, with a draw at 25%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 0–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in AEK Athens vs Roma?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.1 for AEK Athens and 1.6 for Roma, and the match has 3 or more goals in 49% of cases.

What does this match mean for AEK Athens?

AEK Athens's qualification chance is 19% right now. A win would make it 42%, a draw 16% and a defeat 8%.

What does this match mean for Roma?

Roma's qualification chance is 77% right now. A win would make it 92%, a draw 72% and a defeat 55%.

When is AEK Athens vs Roma played?

Tuesday 19 January, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 7).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 7 fixtures

Full matchday 7: what every team needs →