Aston Villa vs Paris Saint-Germain: what's at stake in the Champions League?
← Champions League: full table and chances
Matchday 6 · Tuesday 8 December, 21:00
The model gives Aston Villa a 23% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Paris Saint-Germain 52%. Aston Villa's top-8 chance is 62% now: a win would take it to 87%, a defeat to 50%. Paris Saint-Germain's top-8 chance is 96% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 90%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | Aston Villa: top 8 | Aston Villa: through | Paris Saint-Germain: top 8 | Paris Saint-Germain: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 62% | 100% | 96% | 100% |
| Aston Villa win | 87% | 100% | 90% | 100% |
| Draw | 66% | 100% | 95% | 100% |
| Paris Saint-Germain win | 50% | >99% | 99% | 100% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Aston Villa
- MD1WClub Brugge A3–2
- MD2WFenerbahçe H6–0
- MD3WViking H3–1
- MD4Barcelona A3 November
- MD5Galatasaray A24 November
- MD6Paris Saint-Germain H this match8 December
- MD7Borussia Dortmund H19 January
- MD8Slavia Praha A27 January
Paris Saint-Germain
- MD1WSlovan Bratislava H6–1
- MD2WManchester City A4–2
- MD3WBarcelona H4–2
- MD4Villarreal A3 November
- MD5Roma H25 November
- MD6Aston Villa A this match8 December
- MD7Como A20 January
- MD8Galatasaray H27 January
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Aston Villa vs PSG?
The model gives Aston Villa a 23% chance of winning and Paris Saint-Germain 52%, with a draw at 25%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 0–1 (12%).
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs PSG?
The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.0 for Aston Villa and 1.6 for Paris Saint-Germain, and the match has 3 or more goals in 50% of cases.
What does this match mean for Aston Villa?
Aston Villa's top-8 chance is 62% right now. A win would make it 87%, a draw 66% and a defeat 50%.
What does this match mean for Paris Saint-Germain?
Paris Saint-Germain's top-8 chance is 96% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 95% and a defeat 90%.
When is Aston Villa vs Paris Saint-Germain played?
Tuesday 8 December, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 6).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 6 fixtures
- Viking – Feyenoord
- Villarreal – Sabah
- AEK Athens – Galatasaray
- Roma – Sporting CP
- Barcelona – Manchester City
- Bayern München – Slavia Praha
- Manchester United – Leipzig
- Napoli – Club Brugge
- Real Betis – Como
- Slovan Bratislava – Shakhtar Donetsk
- Arsenal – Real Madrid
- Borussia Dortmund – Inter
- LASK – Fenerbahçe
- Liverpool – Porto
- Lens – Bodø/Glimt
- PSV Eindhoven – Atlético de Madrid
- Stuttgart – Lille