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Villarreal vs Sabah: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Tuesday 8 December, 18:45

Villarreal19th, 3 pts
–Matchday 6
Sabah25th, 3 pts
80%Villarreal win
14%Draw
7%Sabah win

The model gives Villarreal a 80% chance of winning, a draw 14% and Sabah 7%. Villarreal's chance of going through is 82% now: a win would take it to 87%, a defeat to 48%. Sabah's chance of going through is 4% now: a win would take it to 21%, a defeat to 2%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeVillarreal: top 8Villarreal: throughSabah: top 8Sabah: through
Now5%82%<1%4%
Villarreal win7%87%0%2%
Draw1%64%0%5%
Sabah win<1%48%<1%21%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

2.6 – 0.6Expected goals
44%Both teams score
63%3 or more goals
53%Villarreal clean sheet
7%Sabah clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–013%
3–012%
1–010%
2–18%
4–08%
3–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Villarreal

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference 0

  1. MD1LBorussia Dortmund A2–3
  2. MD2WNapoli H3–1
  3. MD3LLiverpool A3–4
  4. MD4Paris Saint-Germain H3 November
  5. MD5Slavia Praha A25 November
  6. MD6Sabah H this match8 December
  7. MD7Fenerbahçe A20 January
  8. MD8Manchester United H27 January

Sabah

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -3

  1. MD1LManchester United A0–4
  2. MD2WSlavia Praha H2–0
  3. MD3LBorussia Dortmund H1–2
  4. MD4Viking A4 November
  5. MD5Barcelona H25 November
  6. MD6Villarreal A this match8 December
  7. MD7Napoli H20 January
  8. MD8Arsenal A27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Villarreal vs Sabah?

The model gives Villarreal a 80% chance of winning and Sabah 7%, with a draw at 14%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 2–0 (13%), followed by 3–0 (12%).

Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Sabah?

The model gives both teams scoring a 44% chance. Expected goals are 2.6 for Villarreal and 0.6 for Sabah, and the match has 3 or more goals in 63% of cases.

What does this match mean for Villarreal?

Villarreal's qualification chance is 82% right now. A win would make it 87%, a draw 64% and a defeat 48%.

What does this match mean for Sabah?

Sabah's qualification chance is 4% right now. A win would make it 21%, a draw 5% and a defeat 2%.

When is Villarreal vs Sabah played?

Tuesday 8 December, 18:45 (Champions League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →