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Viking vs PSV Eindhoven: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Wednesday 20 January, 21:00

Viking33rd, 1 pt
–Matchday 7
PSV Eindhoven18th, 4 pts
20%Viking win
23%Draw
56%PSV Eindhoven win

The model gives Viking a 20% chance of winning, a draw 23% and PSV Eindhoven 56%. Viking's chance of going through is 9% now: a win would take it to 27%, a defeat to 3%. PSV Eindhoven's chance of going through is 77% now: a win would take it to 89%, a defeat to 53%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeViking: top 8Viking: throughPSV Eindhoven: top 8PSV Eindhoven: through
Now<1%9%5%77%
Viking win<1%27%1%53%
Draw<1%8%1%69%
PSV Eindhoven win0%3%8%89%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

0.9 – 1.8Expected goals
51%Both teams score
51%3 or more goals
17%Viking clean sheet
39%PSV Eindhoven clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
1–111%
0–210%
1–210%
0–07%
1–06%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Viking

1 point from 3 matches, goal difference -4

  1. MD1LStuttgart A1–3
  2. MD2DBayern München H3–3
  3. MD3LAston Villa A1–3
  4. MD4Sabah H4 November
  5. MD5Atlético de Madrid A25 November
  6. MD6Feyenoord H8 December
  7. MD7PSV Eindhoven H this match20 January
  8. MD8Napoli A27 January

PSV Eindhoven

4 points from 3 matches, goal difference 0

  1. MD1DShakhtar Donetsk H1–1
  2. MD2LLeipzig A0–1
  3. MD3WPorto A1–0
  4. MD4Club Brugge H4 November
  5. MD5Real Madrid A24 November
  6. MD6Atlético de Madrid H9 December
  7. MD7Viking A this match20 January
  8. MD8Stuttgart H27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Viking vs PSV?

The model gives Viking a 20% chance of winning and PSV Eindhoven 56%, with a draw at 23%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 0–1 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Viking vs PSV?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 0.9 for Viking and 1.8 for PSV Eindhoven, and the match has 3 or more goals in 51% of cases.

What does this match mean for Viking?

Viking's qualification chance is 9% right now. A win would make it 27%, a draw 8% and a defeat 3%.

What does this match mean for PSV Eindhoven?

PSV Eindhoven's qualification chance is 77% right now. A win would make it 89%, a draw 69% and a defeat 53%.

When is Viking vs PSV Eindhoven played?

Wednesday 20 January, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 7).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 7 fixtures

Full matchday 7: what every team needs →