Real Madrid 4–1 Leipzig
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Matchday 3 · Wednesday 21 October, 21:00
Real Madrid beat Leipzig 4–1 at home on matchday 3. After the match, Real Madrid are 4th with 9 points, with a 100% chance of going through (top 8: 96%). Leipzig are now 30th with 3 points, with a 64% chance of going through (top 8: 3%).
Before kick-off
What the model expected, based on team ratings before matchday 3.
The outcome the model rated most likely (71%). The model's most likely score was 2–0 (13%); the actual score had a 4% chance. Expected goals before the match: Real Madrid 2.2, Leipzig 0.8.
Chances before and now
Before matchday 3 compared with now, after all results so far.
| Team | Position | Through (top 24) | Top 8 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 8th → 4th | 100% → 100% | 91% → 96% |
| Leipzig | 21st → 30th | 70% → 64% | 5% → 3% |
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Real Madrid
- MD1WInter H2–1
- MD2WRoma A4–3
- MD3WLeipzig H this match4–1
- MD4AEK Athens A4 November
- MD5PSV Eindhoven H24 November
- MD6Arsenal A9 December
- MD7LASK H19 January
- MD8Shakhtar Donetsk A27 January
Leipzig
- MD1LComo A1–4
- MD2WPSV Eindhoven H1–0
- MD3LReal Madrid A this match1–4
- MD4Manchester City H4 November
- MD5Lens H24 November
- MD6Manchester United A8 December
- MD7Shakhtar Donetsk H20 January
- MD8Feyenoord A27 January
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Real Madrid vs Leipzig?
The match finished 4–1 (Champions League, matchday 3).
Was Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig a surprise?
Before kick-off the model gave Real Madrid a 71% chance of winning, a draw 18% and Leipzig 11%. The outcome the model rated most likely (71%). The model's most likely score was 2–0 (13%); the actual score had a 4% chance.
How did the result change Real Madrid's chances?
Before matchday 3, Real Madrid had a 100% chance of going through (top 8: 91%). Now it is 100% (top 8: 96%).
How did the result change Leipzig's chances?
Before matchday 3, Leipzig had a 70% chance of going through (top 8: 5%). Now it is 64% (top 8: 3%).
When was Real Madrid vs Leipzig played?
Wednesday 21 October, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 3).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 3 fixtures
- Fenerbahçe – Slavia Praha (2–2)
- Sabah – Borussia Dortmund (1–2)
- Roma – Slovan Bratislava (4–0)
- Porto – PSV Eindhoven (0–1)
- Liverpool – Villarreal (4–3)
- Manchester City – AEK Athens (5–1)
- Paris Saint-Germain – Barcelona (4–2)
- Napoli – Bodø/Glimt (4–3)
- Stuttgart – Atlético de Madrid (1–1)
- Como – Manchester United (4–1)
- Lille – Galatasaray (2–4)
- Aston Villa – Viking (3–1)
- Club Brugge – Lens (3–0)
- Bayern München – Arsenal (2–2)
- Inter – Shakhtar Donetsk (1–0)
- Real Betis – Feyenoord (1–0)
- Sporting CP – LASK (2–3)