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Real Madrid vs LASK: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Tuesday 19 January, 21:00

Real Madrid4th, 9 pts
–Matchday 7
LASK24th, 3 pts
90%Real Madrid win
8%Draw
3%LASK win

The model gives Real Madrid a 90% chance of winning, a draw 8% and LASK 3%. Real Madrid's top-8 chance is 96% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 80%. LASK's chance of going through is 31% now: a win would take it to 71%, a defeat to 28%. The most likely score is 3–0 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeReal Madrid: top 8Real Madrid: throughLASK: top 8LASK: through
Now96%100%<1%31%
Real Madrid win98%100%<1%28%
Draw88%100%<1%43%
LASK win80%100%3%71%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

3.3 – 0.5Expected goals
38%Both teams score
74%3 or more goals
61%Real Madrid clean sheet
4%LASK clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

3–013%
2–012%
4–011%
5–07%
1–07%
3–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Real Madrid

9 points from 3 matches, goal difference +5

  1. MD1WInter H2–1
  2. MD2WRoma A4–3
  3. MD3WLeipzig H4–1
  4. MD4AEK Athens A4 November
  5. MD5PSV Eindhoven H24 November
  6. MD6Arsenal A9 December
  7. MD7LASK H this match19 January
  8. MD8Shakhtar Donetsk A27 January

LASK

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -3

  1. MD1LAEK Athens A0–1
  2. MD2LLiverpool H3–6
  3. MD3WSporting CP A3–2
  4. MD4Slovan Bratislava H3 November
  5. MD5Bodø/Glimt A24 November
  6. MD6Fenerbahçe H9 December
  7. MD7Real Madrid A this match19 January
  8. MD8Porto H27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Real Madrid vs LASK?

The model gives Real Madrid a 90% chance of winning and LASK 3%, with a draw at 8%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 3–0 (13%), followed by 2–0 (12%).

Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs LASK?

The model gives both teams scoring a 38% chance. Expected goals are 3.3 for Real Madrid and 0.5 for LASK, and the match has 3 or more goals in 74% of cases.

What does this match mean for Real Madrid?

Real Madrid's top-8 chance is 96% right now. A win would make it 98%, a draw 88% and a defeat 80%.

What does this match mean for LASK?

LASK's qualification chance is 31% right now. A win would make it 71%, a draw 43% and a defeat 28%.

When is Real Madrid vs LASK played?

Tuesday 19 January, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 7).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 7 fixtures

Full matchday 7: what every team needs →