Knockout Math
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Real Madrid vs LASK: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Tuesday 19 January, 21:00

Real Madrid13th, 3 pts
–Matchday 7
LASK27th, 0 pts
88%Real Madrid win
8%Draw
3%LASK win

The model gives Real Madrid a 88% chance of winning, a draw 8% and LASK 3%. Real Madrid's top-8 chance is 81% now: a win would take it to 83%, a defeat to 50%. LASK's chance of going through is 11% now: a win would take it to 36%, a defeat to 10%. The most likely score is 3–0 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Real Madrid: top 8Real Madrid: throughLASK: top 8LASK: through
Now81%>99%<1%11%
Real Madrid win83%>99%<1%10%
Draw62%99%<1%17%
LASK win50%97%1%36%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

3–013%
2–012%
4–011%
1–08%
5–07%
3–17%

Other matchday 7 fixtures