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PSV Eindhoven vs Stuttgart: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Wednesday 27 January, 21:00

PSV Eindhoven18th, 4 pts
–Matchday 8
Stuttgart6th, 7 pts
42%PSV Eindhoven win
26%Draw
32%Stuttgart win

The model gives PSV Eindhoven a 42% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Stuttgart 32%. PSV Eindhoven's chance of going through is 77% now: a win would take it to 92%, a defeat to 59%. Stuttgart's chance of going through is 97% now: a win would take it to 100%, a defeat to 94%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomePSV Eindhoven: top 8PSV Eindhoven: throughStuttgart: top 8Stuttgart: through
Now5%77%29%97%
PSV Eindhoven win10%92%15%94%
Draw2%75%25%98%
Stuttgart win<1%59%52%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.4 – 1.2Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
31%PSV Eindhoven clean sheet
24%Stuttgart clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–07%
2–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

PSV Eindhoven

4 points from 3 matches, goal difference 0

  1. MD1DShakhtar Donetsk H1–1
  2. MD2LLeipzig A0–1
  3. MD3WPorto A1–0
  4. MD4Club Brugge H4 November
  5. MD5Real Madrid A24 November
  6. MD6Atlético de Madrid H9 December
  7. MD7Viking A20 January
  8. MD8Stuttgart H this match27 January

Stuttgart

7 points from 3 matches, goal difference +5

  1. MD1WViking H3–1
  2. MD2WSlovan Bratislava A3–0
  3. MD3DAtlético de Madrid H1–1
  4. MD4Galatasaray A3 November
  5. MD5Inter A25 November
  6. MD6Lille H9 December
  7. MD7Club Brugge H19 January
  8. MD8PSV Eindhoven A this match27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in PSV vs Stuttgart?

The model gives PSV Eindhoven a 42% chance of winning and Stuttgart 32%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in PSV vs Stuttgart?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.4 for PSV Eindhoven and 1.2 for Stuttgart, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for PSV Eindhoven?

PSV Eindhoven's qualification chance is 77% right now. A win would make it 92%, a draw 75% and a defeat 59%.

What does this match mean for Stuttgart?

Stuttgart's qualification chance is 97% right now. A win would make it 100%, a draw 98% and a defeat 94%.

When is PSV Eindhoven vs Stuttgart played?

Wednesday 27 January, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 8).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 8 fixtures

Full matchday 8: what every team needs →