Shakhtar Donetsk vs Real Madrid: what's at stake in the Champions League?
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Matchday 8 · Wednesday 27 January, 21:00
Shakhtar Donetsk18th, 1 pts
–Matchday 8
Real Madrid13th, 3 pts
12%Shakhtar Donetsk win
19%Draw
69%Real Madrid win
The model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 12% chance of winning, a draw 19% and Real Madrid 69%. Shakhtar Donetsk's chance of going through is 44% now: a win would take it to 74%, a defeat to 37%. Real Madrid's top-8 chance is 81% now: a win would take it to 88%, a defeat to 59%. The most likely score is 0–2 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Shakhtar Donetsk: top 8 | Shakhtar Donetsk: through | Real Madrid: top 8 | Real Madrid: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 2% | 44% | 81% | >99% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk win | 6% | 74% | 59% | 99% |
| Draw | 2% | 50% | 69% | 99% |
| Real Madrid win | 1% | 37% | 88% | 100% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
0–212%
0–112%
1–210%
1–19%
0–39%
1–37%
Other matchday 8 fixtures
- Arsenal – Sabah
- Roma – Lille
- Atlético de Madrid – Fenerbahçe
- Borussia Dortmund – AEK Athens
- Club Brugge – Bodø/Glimt
- Bayern München – Real Betis
- Barcelona – Como
- Feyenoord – Leipzig
- LASK – Porto
- Liverpool – Lens
- Manchester City – Sporting CP
- Paris Saint-Germain – Galatasaray
- PSV Eindhoven – Stuttgart
- Slavia Praha – Aston Villa
- Napoli – Viking
- Villarreal – Manchester United
- Slovan Bratislava – Inter