Shakhtar Donetsk vs Real Madrid: what's at stake in the Champions League?

Q: What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 0–2 (13%), followed by 0–1 (11%).

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Matchday 8 · Wednesday 27 January, 21:00

Shakhtar Donetsk17th, 4 pts

–Matchday 8

Real Madrid4th, 9 pts

12%Shakhtar Donetsk win

18%Draw

70%Real Madrid win

The model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 12% chance of winning, a draw 18% and Real Madrid 70%. Shakhtar Donetsk's chance of going through is 62% now: a win would take it to 91%, a defeat to 55%. Real Madrid's top-8 chance is 96% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 86%. The most likely score is 0–2 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Outcome	Shakhtar Donetsk: top 8	Shakhtar Donetsk: through	Real Madrid: top 8	Real Madrid: through
Now	2%	62%	96%	100%
Shakhtar Donetsk win	9%	91%	86%	100%
Draw	2%	71%	94%	100%
Real Madrid win	1%	55%	99%	100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

0.8 – 2.2Expected goals

47%Both teams score

57%3 or more goals

11%Shakhtar Donetsk clean sheet

47%Real Madrid clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–213%

0–111%

1–210%

0–39%

1–19%

1–37%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Shakhtar Donetsk

4 points from 3 matches, goal difference +1

MD1DPSV Eindhoven A1–1
MD2WAEK Athens H3–1
MD3LInter A0–1
MD4Sporting CP H3 November
MD5Fenerbahçe H25 November
MD6Slovan Bratislava A9 December
MD7Leipzig A20 January
MD8Real Madrid H this match27 January

Real Madrid

9 points from 3 matches, goal difference +5

MD1WInter H2–1
MD2WRoma A4–3
MD3WLeipzig H4–1
MD4AEK Athens A4 November
MD5PSV Eindhoven H24 November
MD6Arsenal A9 December
MD7LASK H19 January
MD8Shakhtar Donetsk A this match27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Real Madrid?

The model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 12% chance of winning and Real Madrid 70%, with a draw at 18%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 0–2 (13%), followed by 0–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Real Madrid?

The model gives both teams scoring a 47% chance. Expected goals are 0.8 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 2.2 for Real Madrid, and the match has 3 or more goals in 57% of cases.

What does this match mean for Shakhtar Donetsk?

Shakhtar Donetsk's qualification chance is 62% right now. A win would make it 91%, a draw 71% and a defeat 55%.

What does this match mean for Real Madrid?

Real Madrid's top-8 chance is 96% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 94% and a defeat 86%.

When is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Real Madrid played?

Wednesday 27 January, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 8).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 8 fixtures

Full matchday 8: what every team needs →