Knockout Math
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Stuttgart vs Club Brugge: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Tuesday 19 January, 21:00

Stuttgart7th, 3 pts
–Matchday 7
Club Brugge23rd, 0 pts
48%Stuttgart win
25%Draw
26%Club Brugge win

The model gives Stuttgart a 48% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Club Brugge 26%. Stuttgart's chance of going through is 88% now: a win would take it to 96%, a defeat to 75%. Club Brugge's chance of going through is 36% now: a win would take it to 59%, a defeat to 23%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Stuttgart: top 8Stuttgart: throughClub Brugge: top 8Club Brugge: through
Now20%88%1%36%
Stuttgart win30%96%<1%23%
Draw14%85%1%36%
Club Brugge win8%75%3%59%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–07%

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