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Stuttgart vs Club Brugge: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Tuesday 19 January, 21:00

Stuttgart6th, 7 pts
–Matchday 7
Club Brugge11th, 6 pts
48%Stuttgart win
25%Draw
27%Club Brugge win

The model gives Stuttgart a 48% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Club Brugge 27%. Stuttgart's chance of going through is 97% now: a win would take it to 100%, a defeat to 92%. Club Brugge's chance of going through is 87% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 79%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeStuttgart: top 8Stuttgart: throughClub Brugge: top 8Club Brugge: through
Now29%97%10%87%
Stuttgart win45%100%3%79%
Draw20%97%8%88%
Club Brugge win11%92%23%99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.5 – 1.1Expected goals
52%Both teams score
49%3 or more goals
34%Stuttgart clean sheet
21%Club Brugge clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Stuttgart

7 points from 3 matches, goal difference +5

  1. MD1WViking H3–1
  2. MD2WSlovan Bratislava A3–0
  3. MD3DAtlético de Madrid H1–1
  4. MD4Galatasaray A3 November
  5. MD5Inter A25 November
  6. MD6Lille H9 December
  7. MD7Club Brugge H this match19 January
  8. MD8PSV Eindhoven A27 January

Club Brugge

6 points from 3 matches, goal difference +3

  1. MD1LAston Villa H2–3
  2. MD2WInter A4–3
  3. MD3WLens H3–0
  4. MD4PSV Eindhoven A4 November
  5. MD5Liverpool H25 November
  6. MD6Napoli A8 December
  7. MD7Stuttgart A this match19 January
  8. MD8Bodø/Glimt H27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Stuttgart vs Club Brugge?

The model gives Stuttgart a 48% chance of winning and Club Brugge 27%, with a draw at 25%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Stuttgart vs Club Brugge?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.5 for Stuttgart and 1.1 for Club Brugge, and the match has 3 or more goals in 49% of cases.

What does this match mean for Stuttgart?

Stuttgart's qualification chance is 97% right now. A win would make it 100%, a draw 97% and a defeat 92%.

What does this match mean for Club Brugge?

Club Brugge's qualification chance is 87% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 88% and a defeat 79%.

When is Stuttgart vs Club Brugge played?

Tuesday 19 January, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 7).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 7 fixtures

Full matchday 7: what every team needs →