Knockout Math
Latviski

Club Brugge vs Lens: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Wednesday 21 October, 21:00

Club Brugge23rd, 0 pts
–Matchday 3
Lens10th, 3 pts
44%Club Brugge win
26%Draw
30%Lens win

The model gives Club Brugge a 44% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Lens 30%. Club Brugge's chance of going through is 36% now: a win would take it to 52%, a defeat to 18%. Lens's chance of going through is 76% now: a win would take it to 91%, a defeat to 64%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Club Brugge: top 8Club Brugge: throughLens: top 8Lens: through
Now1%36%10%76%
Club Brugge win2%52%4%64%
Draw<1%29%8%76%
Lens win<1%18%19%91%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–07%

Other matchday 3 fixtures