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Bodø/Glimt vs Atlético de Madrid: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Tuesday 19 January, 18:45

Bodø/Glimt28th, 3 pts
–Matchday 7
Atlético de Madrid16th, 4 pts
23%Bodø/Glimt win
24%Draw
53%Atlético de Madrid win

The model gives Bodø/Glimt a 23% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Atlético de Madrid 53%. Bodø/Glimt's chance of going through is 59% now: a win would take it to 84%, a defeat to 46%. Atlético de Madrid's chance of going through is 96% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 89%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeBodø/Glimt: top 8Bodø/Glimt: throughAtlético de Madrid: top 8Atlético de Madrid: through
Now2%59%24%96%
Bodø/Glimt win6%84%6%89%
Draw1%61%13%95%
Atlético de Madrid win<1%46%37%99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.0 – 1.7Expected goals
51%Both teams score
50%3 or more goals
19%Bodø/Glimt clean sheet
37%Atlético de Madrid clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–112%
1–210%
0–210%
1–07%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Bodø/Glimt

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -5

  1. MD1LBayern München A0–5
  2. MD2WBorussia Dortmund H1–0
  3. MD3LNapoli A3–4
  4. MD4Lille H3 November
  5. MD5LASK H24 November
  6. MD6Lens A9 December
  7. MD7Atlético de Madrid H this match19 January
  8. MD8Club Brugge A27 January

Atlético de Madrid

4 points from 3 matches, goal difference +1

  1. MD1LLiverpool A1–2
  2. MD2WManchester United H2–0
  3. MD3DStuttgart A1–1
  4. MD4Bayern München H3 November
  5. MD5Viking H25 November
  6. MD6PSV Eindhoven A9 December
  7. MD7Bodø/Glimt A this match19 January
  8. MD8Fenerbahçe H27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Bodø/Glimt vs Atlético Madrid?

The model gives Bodø/Glimt a 23% chance of winning and Atlético de Madrid 53%, with a draw at 24%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 0–1 (12%).

Will both teams score in Bodø/Glimt vs Atlético Madrid?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.0 for Bodø/Glimt and 1.7 for Atlético de Madrid, and the match has 3 or more goals in 50% of cases.

What does this match mean for Bodø/Glimt?

Bodø/Glimt's qualification chance is 59% right now. A win would make it 84%, a draw 61% and a defeat 46%.

What does this match mean for Atlético de Madrid?

Atlético de Madrid's qualification chance is 96% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 95% and a defeat 89%.

When is Bodø/Glimt vs Atlético de Madrid played?

Tuesday 19 January, 18:45 (Champions League, matchday 7).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 7 fixtures

Full matchday 7: what every team needs →