Knockout Math
Live
EN

Atlético de Madrid vs Fenerbahçe: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Wednesday 27 January, 21:00

Atlético de Madrid16th, 4 pts
–Matchday 8
Fenerbahçe31st, 2 pts
66%Atlético de Madrid win
20%Draw
14%Fenerbahçe win

The model gives Atlético de Madrid a 66% chance of winning, a draw 20% and Fenerbahçe 14%. Atlético de Madrid's chance of going through is 96% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 85%. Fenerbahçe's chance of going through is 30% now: a win would take it to 62%, a defeat to 21%. The most likely score is 2–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeAtlético de Madrid: top 8Atlético de Madrid: throughFenerbahçe: top 8Fenerbahçe: through
Now24%96%<1%30%
Atlético de Madrid win32%99%<1%21%
Draw10%93%<1%35%
Fenerbahçe win5%85%2%62%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

2.1 – 0.8Expected goals
48%Both teams score
55%3 or more goals
44%Atlético de Madrid clean sheet
13%Fenerbahçe clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Atlético de Madrid

4 points from 3 matches, goal difference +1

  1. MD1LLiverpool A1–2
  2. MD2WManchester United H2–0
  3. MD3DStuttgart A1–1
  4. MD4Bayern München H3 November
  5. MD5Viking H25 November
  6. MD6PSV Eindhoven A9 December
  7. MD7Bodø/Glimt A19 January
  8. MD8Fenerbahçe H this match27 January

Fenerbahçe

2 points from 3 matches, goal difference -6

  1. MD1DRoma H1–1
  2. MD2LAston Villa A0–6
  3. MD3DSlavia Praha H2–2
  4. MD4Liverpool H4 November
  5. MD5Shakhtar Donetsk A25 November
  6. MD6LASK A9 December
  7. MD7Villarreal H20 January
  8. MD8Atlético de Madrid A this match27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Atlético Madrid vs Fenerbahçe?

The model gives Atlético de Madrid a 66% chance of winning and Fenerbahçe 14%, with a draw at 20%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 2–0 (12%), followed by 1–0 (12%).

Will both teams score in Atlético Madrid vs Fenerbahçe?

The model gives both teams scoring a 48% chance. Expected goals are 2.1 for Atlético de Madrid and 0.8 for Fenerbahçe, and the match has 3 or more goals in 55% of cases.

What does this match mean for Atlético de Madrid?

Atlético de Madrid's qualification chance is 96% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 93% and a defeat 85%.

What does this match mean for Fenerbahçe?

Fenerbahçe's qualification chance is 30% right now. A win would make it 62%, a draw 35% and a defeat 21%.

When is Atlético de Madrid vs Fenerbahçe played?

Wednesday 27 January, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 8).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 8 fixtures

Full matchday 8: what every team needs →