Atlético de Madrid vs Fenerbahçe: what's at stake in the Champions League?
← Champions League: full table and chances
Matchday 8 · Wednesday 27 January, 21:00
Atlético de Madrid25th, 0 pts
–Matchday 8
Fenerbahçe19th, 1 pts
64%Atlético de Madrid win
21%Draw
15%Fenerbahçe win
The model gives Atlético de Madrid a 64% chance of winning, a draw 21% and Fenerbahçe 15%. Atlético de Madrid's chance of going through is 89% now: a win would take it to 95%, a defeat to 74%. Fenerbahçe's chance of going through is 59% now: a win would take it to 83%, a defeat to 51%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Atlético de Madrid: top 8 | Atlético de Madrid: through | Fenerbahçe: top 8 | Fenerbahçe: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 22% | 89% | 4% | 59% |
| Atlético de Madrid win | 29% | 95% | 2% | 51% |
| Draw | 12% | 83% | 4% | 66% |
| Fenerbahçe win | 7% | 74% | 13% | 83% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–012%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
3–16%
Other matchday 8 fixtures
- Arsenal – Sabah
- Roma – Lille
- Borussia Dortmund – AEK Athens
- Club Brugge – Bodø/Glimt
- Bayern München – Real Betis
- Barcelona – Como
- Shakhtar Donetsk – Real Madrid
- Feyenoord – Leipzig
- LASK – Porto
- Liverpool – Lens
- Manchester City – Sporting CP
- Paris Saint-Germain – Galatasaray
- PSV Eindhoven – Stuttgart
- Slavia Praha – Aston Villa
- Napoli – Viking
- Villarreal – Manchester United
- Slovan Bratislava – Inter