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Leipzig vs Shakhtar Donetsk: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Wednesday 20 January, 21:00

Leipzig30th, 3 pts
–Matchday 7
Shakhtar Donetsk17th, 4 pts
57%Leipzig win
23%Draw
20%Shakhtar Donetsk win

The model gives Leipzig a 57% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Shakhtar Donetsk 20%. Leipzig's chance of going through is 64% now: a win would take it to 79%, a defeat to 36%. Shakhtar Donetsk's chance of going through is 62% now: a win would take it to 89%, a defeat to 50%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeLeipzig: top 8Leipzig: throughShakhtar Donetsk: top 8Shakhtar Donetsk: through
Now3%64%2%62%
Leipzig win4%79%<1%50%
Draw1%53%1%68%
Shakhtar Donetsk win<1%36%7%89%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.8 – 0.9Expected goals
51%Both teams score
51%3 or more goals
39%Leipzig clean sheet
17%Shakhtar Donetsk clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–16%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Leipzig

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -5

  1. MD1LComo A1–4
  2. MD2WPSV Eindhoven H1–0
  3. MD3LReal Madrid A1–4
  4. MD4Manchester City H4 November
  5. MD5Lens H24 November
  6. MD6Manchester United A8 December
  7. MD7Shakhtar Donetsk H this match20 January
  8. MD8Feyenoord A27 January

Shakhtar Donetsk

4 points from 3 matches, goal difference +1

  1. MD1DPSV Eindhoven A1–1
  2. MD2WAEK Athens H3–1
  3. MD3LInter A0–1
  4. MD4Sporting CP H3 November
  5. MD5Fenerbahçe H25 November
  6. MD6Slovan Bratislava A9 December
  7. MD7Leipzig A this match20 January
  8. MD8Real Madrid H27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in RB Leipzig vs Shakhtar Donetsk?

The model gives Leipzig a 57% chance of winning and Shakhtar Donetsk 20%, with a draw at 23%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs Shakhtar Donetsk?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.8 for Leipzig and 0.9 for Shakhtar Donetsk, and the match has 3 or more goals in 51% of cases.

What does this match mean for Leipzig?

Leipzig's qualification chance is 64% right now. A win would make it 79%, a draw 53% and a defeat 36%.

What does this match mean for Shakhtar Donetsk?

Shakhtar Donetsk's qualification chance is 62% right now. A win would make it 89%, a draw 68% and a defeat 50%.

When is Leipzig vs Shakhtar Donetsk played?

Wednesday 20 January, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 7).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 7 fixtures

Full matchday 7: what every team needs →