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Feyenoord vs Leipzig: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Wednesday 27 January, 21:00

Feyenoord26th, 3 pts
–Matchday 8
Leipzig30th, 3 pts
37%Feyenoord win
26%Draw
36%Leipzig win

The model gives Feyenoord a 37% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Leipzig 36%. Feyenoord's chance of going through is 57% now: a win would take it to 79%, a defeat to 37%. Leipzig's chance of going through is 64% now: a win would take it to 85%, a defeat to 46%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeFeyenoord: top 8Feyenoord: throughLeipzig: top 8Leipzig: through
Now2%57%3%64%
Feyenoord win4%79%<1%46%
Draw1%53%1%62%
Leipzig win<1%37%6%85%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.3 – 1.3Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
28%Feyenoord clean sheet
27%Leipzig clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Feyenoord

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -4

  1. MD1LBarcelona A1–5
  2. MD2WComo H3–2
  3. MD3LReal Betis A0–1
  4. MD4Inter H3 November
  5. MD5Porto H24 November
  6. MD6Viking A8 December
  7. MD7Galatasaray A19 January
  8. MD8Leipzig H this match27 January

Leipzig

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -5

  1. MD1LComo A1–4
  2. MD2WPSV Eindhoven H1–0
  3. MD3LReal Madrid A1–4
  4. MD4Manchester City H4 November
  5. MD5Lens H24 November
  6. MD6Manchester United A8 December
  7. MD7Shakhtar Donetsk H20 January
  8. MD8Feyenoord A this match27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Feyenoord vs RB Leipzig?

The model gives Feyenoord a 37% chance of winning and Leipzig 36%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 1–0 (10%).

Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs RB Leipzig?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.3 for Feyenoord and 1.3 for Leipzig, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Feyenoord?

Feyenoord's qualification chance is 57% right now. A win would make it 79%, a draw 53% and a defeat 37%.

What does this match mean for Leipzig?

Leipzig's qualification chance is 64% right now. A win would make it 85%, a draw 62% and a defeat 46%.

When is Feyenoord vs Leipzig played?

Wednesday 27 January, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 8).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 8 fixtures

Full matchday 8: what every team needs →