Lens vs Manchester City: what's at stake in the Champions League?
← Champions League: full table and chances
Matchday 7 · Wednesday 20 January, 21:00
Lens10th, 3 pts
–Matchday 7
Manchester City8th, 3 pts
21%Lens win
24%Draw
55%Manchester City win
The model gives Lens a 21% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Manchester City 55%. Lens's chance of going through is 76% now: a win would take it to 92%, a defeat to 68%. Manchester City's chance of going through is 98% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 95%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Lens: top 8 | Lens: through | Manchester City: top 8 | Manchester City: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 10% | 76% | 54% | 98% |
| Lens win | 23% | 92% | 30% | 95% |
| Draw | 9% | 79% | 43% | 98% |
| Manchester City win | 5% | 68% | 67% | >99% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
0–112%
1–111%
0–210%
1–210%
0–07%
1–07%
Other matchday 7 fixtures
- Bodø/Glimt – Atlético de Madrid
- Galatasaray – Feyenoord
- AEK Athens – Roma
- Aston Villa – Borussia Dortmund
- Inter – Liverpool
- Porto – Slavia Praha
- Lille – Slovan Bratislava
- Real Madrid – LASK
- Stuttgart – Club Brugge
- Fenerbahçe – Villarreal
- Sabah – Napoli
- Como – Paris Saint-Germain
- Manchester United – Bayern München
- Leipzig – Shakhtar Donetsk
- Real Betis – Arsenal
- Sporting CP – Barcelona
- Viking – PSV Eindhoven