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Lens vs Manchester City: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Wednesday 20 January, 21:00

Lens27th, 3 pts
–Matchday 7
Manchester City10th, 6 pts
19%Lens win
23%Draw
58%Manchester City win

The model gives Lens a 19% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Manchester City 58%. Lens's chance of going through is 38% now: a win would take it to 69%, a defeat to 26%. Manchester City's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 96%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeLens: top 8Lens: throughManchester City: top 8Manchester City: through
Now<1%38%45%99%
Lens win2%69%18%96%
Draw<1%40%32%98%
Manchester City win<1%26%59%>99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

0.9 – 1.8Expected goals
50%Both teams score
51%3 or more goals
17%Lens clean sheet
40%Manchester City clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
1–111%
0–211%
1–210%
0–07%
0–36%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Lens

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -4

  1. MD1WSlavia Praha A3–2
  2. MD2LSporting CP H0–2
  3. MD3LClub Brugge A0–3
  4. MD4Como H4 November
  5. MD5Leipzig A24 November
  6. MD6Bodø/Glimt H9 December
  7. MD7Manchester City H this match20 January
  8. MD8Liverpool A27 January

Manchester City

6 points from 3 matches, goal difference +4

  1. MD1WPorto A2–0
  2. MD2LParis Saint-Germain H2–4
  3. MD3WAEK Athens H5–1
  4. MD4Leipzig A4 November
  5. MD5Napoli H24 November
  6. MD6Barcelona A8 December
  7. MD7Lens A this match20 January
  8. MD8Sporting CP H27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Lens vs Man City?

The model gives Lens a 19% chance of winning and Manchester City 58%, with a draw at 23%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 0–1 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Lens vs Man City?

The model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. Expected goals are 0.9 for Lens and 1.8 for Manchester City, and the match has 3 or more goals in 51% of cases.

What does this match mean for Lens?

Lens's qualification chance is 38% right now. A win would make it 69%, a draw 40% and a defeat 26%.

What does this match mean for Manchester City?

Manchester City's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 98% and a defeat 96%.

When is Lens vs Manchester City played?

Wednesday 20 January, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 7).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 7 fixtures

Full matchday 7: what every team needs →