Manchester City 5–1 AEK Athens
← Champions League: full table and chances
Matchday 3 · Tuesday 20 October, 21:00
Manchester City beat AEK Athens 5–1 at home on matchday 3. After the match, Manchester City are 10th with 6 points, with a 99% chance of going through (top 8: 45%). AEK Athens are now 29th with 3 points, with a 19% chance of going through (top 8: <1%).
Before kick-off
What the model expected, based on team ratings before matchday 3.
The outcome the model rated most likely (80%). The model's most likely score was 2–0 (13%); the actual score had a 3% chance. Expected goals before the match: Manchester City 2.7, AEK Athens 0.6.
Chances before and now
Before matchday 3 compared with now, after all results so far.
| Team | Position | Through (top 24) | Top 8 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 17th → 10th | 97% → 99% | 34% → 45% |
| AEK Athens | 20th → 29th | 28% → 19% | <1% → <1% |
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Manchester City
- MD1WPorto A2–0
- MD2LParis Saint-Germain H2–4
- MD3WAEK Athens H this match5–1
- MD4Leipzig A4 November
- MD5Napoli H24 November
- MD6Barcelona A8 December
- MD7Lens A20 January
- MD8Sporting CP H27 January
AEK Athens
- MD1WLASK H1–0
- MD2LShakhtar Donetsk A1–3
- MD3LManchester City A this match1–5
- MD4Real Madrid H4 November
- MD5Como A24 November
- MD6Galatasaray H8 December
- MD7Roma H19 January
- MD8Borussia Dortmund A27 January
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Manchester City vs AEK Athens?
The match finished 5–1 (Champions League, matchday 3).
Was Man City vs AEK Athens a surprise?
Before kick-off the model gave Manchester City a 80% chance of winning, a draw 13% and AEK Athens 6%. The outcome the model rated most likely (80%). The model's most likely score was 2–0 (13%); the actual score had a 3% chance.
How did the result change Manchester City's chances?
Before matchday 3, Manchester City had a 97% chance of going through (top 8: 34%). Now it is 99% (top 8: 45%).
How did the result change AEK Athens's chances?
Before matchday 3, AEK Athens had a 28% chance of going through (top 8: <1%). Now it is 19% (top 8: <1%).
When was Manchester City vs AEK Athens played?
Tuesday 20 October, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 3).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 3 fixtures
- Fenerbahçe – Slavia Praha (2–2)
- Sabah – Borussia Dortmund (1–2)
- Roma – Slovan Bratislava (4–0)
- Porto – PSV Eindhoven (0–1)
- Liverpool – Villarreal (4–3)
- Paris Saint-Germain – Barcelona (4–2)
- Napoli – Bodø/Glimt (4–3)
- Stuttgart – Atlético de Madrid (1–1)
- Como – Manchester United (4–1)
- Lille – Galatasaray (2–4)
- Aston Villa – Viking (3–1)
- Club Brugge – Lens (3–0)
- Bayern München – Arsenal (2–2)
- Inter – Shakhtar Donetsk (1–0)
- Real Madrid – Leipzig (4–1)
- Real Betis – Feyenoord (1–0)
- Sporting CP – LASK (2–3)