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Inter vs Liverpool: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Tuesday 19 January, 21:00

Inter20th, 3 pts
–Matchday 7
Liverpool3rd, 9 pts
35%Inter win
26%Draw
39%Liverpool win

The model gives Inter a 35% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Liverpool 39%. Inter's chance of going through is 89% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 81%. Liverpool's top-8 chance is 92% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 84%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeInter: top 8Inter: throughLiverpool: top 8Liverpool: through
Now11%89%92%100%
Inter win24%98%84%100%
Draw7%89%93%100%
Liverpool win2%81%98%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.2 – 1.3Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
26%Inter clean sheet
29%Liverpool clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Inter

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LReal Madrid A1–2
  2. MD2LClub Brugge H3–4
  3. MD3WShakhtar Donetsk H1–0
  4. MD4Feyenoord A3 November
  5. MD5Stuttgart H25 November
  6. MD6Borussia Dortmund A9 December
  7. MD7Liverpool H this match19 January
  8. MD8Slovan Bratislava A27 January

Liverpool

9 points from 3 matches, goal difference +5

  1. MD1WAtlético de Madrid H2–1
  2. MD2WLASK A6–3
  3. MD3WVillarreal H4–3
  4. MD4Fenerbahçe A4 November
  5. MD5Club Brugge A25 November
  6. MD6Porto H9 December
  7. MD7Inter A this match19 January
  8. MD8Lens H27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Inter Milan vs Liverpool?

The model gives Inter a 35% chance of winning and Liverpool 39%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 0–1 (10%).

Will both teams score in Inter Milan vs Liverpool?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.2 for Inter and 1.3 for Liverpool, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Inter?

Inter's qualification chance is 89% right now. A win would make it 98%, a draw 89% and a defeat 81%.

What does this match mean for Liverpool?

Liverpool's top-8 chance is 92% right now. A win would make it 98%, a draw 93% and a defeat 84%.

When is Inter vs Liverpool played?

Tuesday 19 January, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 7).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 7 fixtures

Full matchday 7: what every team needs →